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Monday, April 30, 2012

Miscellany: 4/30/12

Quote of the Day

You cannot do a kindness too soon because you never know how soon it will be too late.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Monthly Blog Readership

Blogger since May 2010 has provided readership pageview statistics on the blog. On the surface, this past month I got the largest number of pageviews since November 2010. However, over the past 6 months, I started getting suspicious numbers of pageviews from Russia. Over the past month, I've been reviewing results from a different, more reliable Google service and confirmed no "real" Russian readers: it's been mostly what is called referrer spam.

Follow-Up Odds and Ends

In Saturday's post commentary "The UBL Operation and Obama's 'Courageous' Decision", I had this to say over the Obama campaign's unethical ad (which even liberal Arianna Huffington has condemned as despicable):

Third, the issue would not have been Obama's decision to go after public enemy #1, once we finally knew where he was; the issue would be what the American public's reaction would have been to know that Obama had solid intelligence on UBL and didn't do anything about it when he had the chance. What if the Procrastinator-in-Chief, by waiting as long as he did, had let UBL go through his fingers from some tip off while Obama had him in that mansion? I bet dollars to doughnuts (and I'm a big boy so I like my doughnuts, even though I don't regularly eat them because of the carbs) that Romney would have pulled the trigger far sooner than Obama did...
If you read Saturday's blog at the time, that is what you read; it is not an edit. Now I may not have been the only one to make that point, although it did not surface when I was doing background for the commentary, so imagine my surprise when I discovered the following excerpt from TODAY'S Daily Mail:
A former intelligence official who was serving in the US government when bin Laden was killed said that the Obama administration knew about the al-Qaeda leader’s whereabouts in October 2010 but delayed taking action and risked letting him escape.
‘In the end, Obama was forced to make a decision and do it. He knew that if he didn’t do it the political risks in not taking action were huge. Mitt Romney would have made the call but he would have made it earlier – as would George W. Bush.’
That is almost VERBATIM what I wrote Saturday. How do I know Romney would have done it sooner? In  25 years of business executive experience, Romney has had to make tough decisions such as layoffs, including the replacement of the founding partners of Bain Capital's parent company:
In 1990, Romney was asked to return to Bain & Company, which was facing financial collapse. He was announced as its new CEO in January 1991 (but drew only a symbolic salary of one dollar). Romney managed an effort to restructure the firm's employee stock-ownership plan, real-estate deals and bank loans, while rallying the firm's thousand employees, imposing a new governing structure that included Bain and the other founding partners giving up control, and increasing fiscal transparency.
We already know how long it took for Barack Obama to come to a decision on the Afghan surge operation (and it was a convoluted solution with a concurrent withdrawal decision announced before feedback on the operation), and Obama waited until less than a month before the Bush tax cuts expired to compromise on a 2-year extension. All of this is incontrovertible, on the record.

I know about decision making because I've had to go to client IT managers and tell them things they didn't want to hear, knowing that they could respond by firing me from the gig. I went into two failing projects, one for the State of Oklahoma, the other for a Wisconsin county, my predecessors no longer there, and turned them around. I know what leadership and decision making is; I've done it, and I see the same qualities in Romney. Obama? Not so much.

It's not personal. I can honestly say that if I had been elected President in 2008, I would have been positively thrilled by the challenge. It would have given me an opportunity to demonstrate the stuff I was made of. I certainly wouldn't have been finger-pointing at Bush. Don't get me wrong; I've been critical of Bush. But if someone asked me about my performance in office, I wouldn't make excuses--and Romney is the same way. Recall what he said in last Tuesday's victory speech?
You might not have heard that our business helped start other businesses, like Staples and Sports Authority and a new steel mill and a learning center called Bright Horizons. And I’d tell you that not every business made it and there were good days and bad days, but every day was a lesson.  
Just to give an anecdote that makes the point. I visited my youngest brother and his family several years back. I could tell that the young kids were excited by my visit. I was sitting at one end of the dining table for dinner one evening when my older nephew accidentally knocked over a full glass of milk. Instantly, the entire dinner table was quiet. I could tell my brother wasn't happy, but he probably didn't want to rebuke his son in front of me. My nephew froze, uncertain what to do, looking back and forth for his parents' reactions. The milk was beginning to spread and  drip over the table edge. I finally decided to say something. "[Nephew], why don't you get a dish towel and mop up the milk?" He immediately ran to the kitchen to retrieve a towel.

So when I heard the Romney Seamus Canadian visit story and how Romney calmly stopped at a nearby service station, hosed down the car and tended to his pet, I had to smile--because I would have probably reacted very similarly under the circumstances. Romney will make a great President.

By the way, I'm apparently not the only person going around saying "President Romney" by accident; he simply looks and sounds like a President, a natural-born leader. I have heard Bill Kristol and others likewise unintentionally make the same slip of the tongue:



Sunday Talk Soup and 77 Cents On the Dollar

Is there a reader whom doesn't know what I'm referring to in the section title? It's probably the most overly referenced statistic over the past 7 years. It comes from a 2005 US Census Report (Figure 2, page 7), comparing gender median income (15 years or older since 1960), referring to female to male income.

Progressives use these sorts of statistics in a misleading way all the time; it leads to a false inference--e.g., that we are talking apples-to-apples in terms of jobs and that is not the case. Public unions engage in this same sort of intellectually dishonest exercise when arguing that public monopoly school teachers are "underpaid". For example, they won't compare the compensation of public high school math teachers to Catholic high school math teachers; they'll try to compare 9-month school years to questionably linked 12-month private sector jobs. They'll compare salaries to salaries versus compensation to compensation (knowing, for instance, public sector benefit packages are far more generous than those in the private sector: and as I've repeatedly stated in this blog, MONEY IS FUNGIBLE, not to mention the fact that public employment is far more secure than private-sector employment: there's a reason, for instance, why corporations usually have to pay more interest than the federal government on bonds).

There are many factors going on here, that explain all or a major portion of the differences; there are some statistics that men work more hours on average than women; women often select jobs with more security (e.g., government) or choose jobs with attractive (but costly) benefits, e.g., flextime, child care, etc. They also tend to choose less-lucrative professions (where there's more supply than demand, like teaching, white collar vs. manual, more dangerous work, e.g., along the Alaska pipeline).

Enter Sunday's Meet the Press, Rachel Maddow and this made-up GOP "War on Women" . [Is there any worse thing than letting the likes of Rachel Maddow or Maureen Dowd waste precious minutes of your life with their banal ideological nonsense?] My God, the political spin is so predictable. The progressives all read off the same memorized political spin sound bites. I've written about the Ledbetter Act before. Just a brief reminder here: the question has more to do with business record keeping and women like Ms. Ledbetter making allegations years after the fact (in this case around the time of retirement). There are often statutes of limitations, the IRS audits you for the last few years, etc. It is moral hazard for Ms. Ledbetter or others to procrastinate on filing grievances or claims: it is unfair to the business which would otherwise address the problem. For instance, suppose that a company wasn't aware of a supervisor not following company compensation guidelines; they could reassign or discharge the manager more expeditiously and limit the extent to any more liability, e.g., with other female employees.

(A similar thing happened to me; California "lost" their copies of my W-2's and disallowed my claim for excess SDI, which had maxed with my first employer that year. They didn't question my multiple sources of  income, but their excuse was that employers gave them lump sum disbursements (not by employee). My second employer didn't know that I had already maxed out my SDI. Somehow my copies were misplaced during a subsequent move to Illinois. In the interim, my second employer had filed for bankruptcy. California was inflexible, insisting they would only settle for my W-2 copies. That's part of the reason I'll never work in California again; I'm not about to enable spendthrift California Democratic politicians.)

Going back the pay issue, I have a sister and a niece, both of whom are registered nurses whom have earned more than their husbands without college degrees ; although I don't know the exact compensation of the individuals, there are enough websites to estimate market rate for their husbands' occupations that I can make educated guesses. For instance, my sister was an Air Force nurse/officer whom fell in love with and married one of the enlisted men working at the hospital. The military pay system is not gender specific; I don't know the specific ranks while they were dating, but suppose for the sake of argument she was an O-2 and he was E-4 and consider the 2013 military pay chart.

Now I could go on for several pages talking about specific comparisons, but there are often different career paths you could take with the same degree. For example, I have a couple of math degrees. Many women with math degrees go into teaching (where ordinary supply/demand  compensation differences are not allowed by public sector union contracts, say, for more scarce math/science teachers may be paid the same as, say, an English or history major); I didn't teach math for a living but I did earn a living as an IT professional which has probably been more lucrative. Of course, I've often had to work nights, evenings, weekends and holidays and travel on business. I remember doing a gig near Provo, Utah (gorgeous place, by the way). (It was a client that manufactured sophisticated pumps and I was working on their ERP upgrade.)  Who would have ever figured out that most restaurants in the area close early in the evening? (There are lots of Mormons in Utah; I went to a client company picnic, and I never saw so many blonds in one place in all my life...)  So I would usually get off work (I was only paid for 8 hours, of course) in the late evening, so my dinner options were usually between an all-night diner or I think there was a Taco Bell open until 1AM. I sometimes went to Wendy's, but I think they closed at midnight. When I was commuting between Chicago and Santa Clara, I would take a 5:30PM flight out of SFO Friday night and arrive in Chicago at 2AM. I had to go to my suburb post office later that morning to get my P.O. Box mail. And then I would get on a plane 4PM or so on Sunday to head back to California. Now to be frank, I've met a number of single women whom have done the road warrior bit, but most I've met are men.

If you look at the oil boom in west North Dakota, you might make $70-100K a year for physically demanding work, and you can also find good paying jobs on rigs in the Gulf (remember what happened during the BP spill? Not as safe as driving to the office.) I remember at one time my youngest brother, whom doesn't have a college degree, once flirted with the idea of moving to Alaska to make good money in the energy industry. There have been movies about Alaskan men finding it hard to meet eligible women.

Let's mention a few inconvenient truths not mentioned by most feminist ideologues:

  • "Most physically dangerous jobs require more physical strength than the vast majority of women possess. People, regardless of gender, tend receive higher pay for work that puts life and limb in jeopardy. According to US Department of Labor statistics for 2006, 54% of workers were men and 46% women while 92% of those killed on the job were men and only 8% women. The 23-cent gap between men’s and women’s incomes is to a large extent a reflection of the workplace death gap."
  • "Males are the majority of the homeless, the incarcerated and the alcoholic. They are the majority of those who actually commit suicide. In America, men have shorter life expectancies than women."
  • "Women are about half of those in medical and law school and the majority of those receiving bachelor’s degrees."
  • "Women are more likely to move in and out of the labor market than men." (Like the longer number of hours, longer tenure at a job tends to be directly related to compensation.")
  • "Women commonly prefer jobs with shorter and more flexible hours to accommodate the demands of family. Compared to men, [the majority of] women generally favor jobs that involve little danger, no travel and good social skills. Such jobs generally pay less.” For women who earn over $100,000 per year, Farrell says they are more likely [than men at the same pay] to give up a portion of pay to spend more time with their families. "
  • "According to Farrell, the median salaries of women exceeded that of men's by at least 5 percent, and in some careers, up to 43 percent in 39 occupations. Some of the 39 professions include: sales engineers, statisticians, legislators, transportation workers, automotive service technicians and mechanics, speech-language pathologists and library assistants."
  • “Female students tended to study areas with lower pay, such as education, health and psychology, while male students dominated higher-paying fields such as engineering, mathematics and physical sciences.”

Mark J. Perry of Carpe Diem often posts on gender differences in colleges; here is a sample excerpt from his current post: "Gender equity for college degrees was achieved back in 1981 and women since then have earned an increasingly larger share of college degrees compared to men in almost every, so that men have become the "second sex" in higher eduction.  [There is a] huge and growing "degree gap" over the last 30 years in favor of women (140 women earning a college degree this year for every 100 men). By 2021 women will earn 148 college degrees for every 100 degrees earned by men, with especially huge gender imbalances for associate's degrees (179 women for every 100 men) and master's degrees (154 women for every 100 men). "

There are some anecdotal observations also noted among the above-cited sources. For example, there may be a moderating effect by marital status (e.g., married women making less than either single men or women). Also men may be more aggressive in dickering for a higher salary versus "settle-for-an-initial-offer" women. (I recall seeing a news magazine show on men more likely to haggle over a new car price.) I've sometimes successfully negotiated raises after managerial turnover (but the company didn't do so on its own initiative).

I've seen numerous news articles over the past decade about young single women with college degrees making more than their male counterparts in metropolitan areas, e.g.:
"Single, childless women in their twenties are finding success in the city: They're out-earning their male counterparts in the USA's biggest metropolitan areas. Women ages 22 to 30 with no husband and no kids earn a median $27,000 a year, 8% more than comparable men in the top 366 metropolitan areas, according to 2008 U.S. Census Bureau data crunched by the New York research firm Reach Advisors and released Wednesday....Education is the key: "Young women are going to college in droves," Reach Advisors reports. "Nearly three-quarters of girls who graduate from high school head to college, vs. two-thirds of the boys. But they don't stop there. Women are now 1.5 times more likely than men to graduate from college or earn advanced degrees." Armed with degrees, young women command higher salaries.
If there is a legitimate gripe, it may involve the case for married women and/or women with children. This may involve women making lifestyle choices about hours or continuity of employment. For example, it may well be that women who take time off to raise young children may not keep their knowledge and skills current and/or miss training opportunities and relevant project experiences valuable to the employer.

I am a free marketer. If I was hiring a partner or employee, I would be willing to hire a green Martian hermaphrodite at a generous salary if I cleared more market share and profit with him than without him. (Of course, media conservatives would attack me for hiring illegal aliens.)

Political Humor

"We're learning more and more about that whole Secret Service scandal. Apparently, the prostitutes in Colombia had code names for the different Secret Service guys they were seeing. The main guy, the guy who wanted to keep putting off paying for stuff until later? His nickname was Obama." - Jay Leno

[And the guy who called ahead? Spitzer.]

"After appearing on our show this week, President Obama has officially become the most televised president in history. Even Ryan Seacrest is like 'Dude, scale it back!'" - Jimmy Fallon

[In other news, Fox News Channel continues to swamp other cable news in the ratings. When asked the reason for their success, the company credits their new motto: "Fair, Balanced, and Now Obama-Free".]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Rolling Stones, "Let's Spend the Night Together"