Analytics

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Miscellany: 1/10/12

Quote of the Day

It is never too late to be what you might have been.
George Eliot

Word of the Day

sinecure: A position or office that requires little or no work but provides a salary.

Use in a sentence: "Thank goodness Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicolas Sarkozy have agreed to save the Western world by creating more jobs [sarcasm]. What government can create is sinecures. Government can claim to create jobs only by reducing taxes, regulation or price inflation in such a way as to allow the private market itself to operate more efficiently." - The Daily Bell, my edits

ROMNEY WINS BIG IN NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Ron Paul a Respectable Runner Up

With 95% of the vote in, Romney got 39% to Ron Paul's 23%; Huntsman placed in the money at 17% while Gingrich and Santorum essentially tied at about 9% each. I have to admit Gingrich does have Obama-like audacity in attempting to suggest anything short of 40% showing would be seen as a "bad showing" by Romney. It's scary how close the polls yesterday came to predicting almost exactly the places and percentages (The top three did beat their average percentages over the past 10 days (Paul and Huntsman by 3 or 4 points), while Gingrich and Santorum did slightly worse).

But it's hard for Gingrich to put lipstick on this pig. Romney's percentage exceeded both 2008 McCain's 37% and his own 31.6%, and the fact that he won a plurality of the nearly half of independent votes once again underscores his electability argument. Gingrich's second consecutive fourth-place (or worse) finish cannot be hyped; he had the most prominent state newspaper endorsing him over Romney, and he went on an anti-capitalist tirade against Romney's venture capitalist background.

I initially thought when Gingrich announced he was running for President, he was really more interested in promoting his updated conservative agenda, and I actually felt a little sorry for him when the Tiffany's/Greek cruise controversies hit and his top campaign staff all but abandoned him. I admired the fact he wasn't trying to do a rerun of the 1980 Reagan campaign, and I felt bad that a former Speaker of the House was polling in the low single-digits while two candidates (Bachmann and Cain) known more for their speeches than public service accomplishments had led the race.

I always felt that Ron Paul knows that he won't win the GOP nomination but I think the real story is that he has been the libertarian leader in the GOP for more than a generation and I expect him to use his high-profile clout to promote pro-liberty planks in the platform. The fact that nearly 1 out of 4 voters (not just highly motivated activists) in New Hampshire voted for Ron Paul, despite his being ambushed by the media on the newsletter kerfuffle and being the target of all the other candidates on defense/foreign policy, speaks volumes. I want to hear Romney talk about an end to nation building, to unsustainable Big Defense budgets, and open-ended commitments as the world's (most unpopular) policeman.

Looking ahead to South Carolina next week, I expect Romney to get a slight boost to the low-30's, Ron Paul in the low-teens, and Gingrich, Santorum and Perry's last stand competing in the non-Romney bracket. I'm going to deviate from the common pundit talking points about Romney being the target. For one thing, I think Romney's strong wins, his strong business/economics message, and his electability are going to withstand partisan sniping in South Carolina, which takes pride in its reputation as a kingmaker; he has handled the debates really well. I don't see Romney supporters abandoning him for Gingrich. I think the three conservatives realize that they're splitting the popular conservative vote and the last thing they can afford coming out of South Carolina is a split vote among them. Their best chance to beat Romney comes through attrition of other conservatives. I think that Gingrich has an advantage over Santorum in South Carolina (having lived in adjacent Georgia). I see that Perry is going after Romney's Bain background; that just isn't going to play well. Perry is going to have to score points on Santorum and/or Gingrich. If he has any hope, he's got to pull a Santorum-like miracle Iowa finish to give him momentum going into the next contests or he's done. To be frank, I don't see that happening, but I do predict that Gingrich is going to make or break his candidacy over the neighboring state South Carolina and Florida campaigns. Gingrich has a good shot at finishing second in South Carolina but an uphill battle, barring an unlikely Romney gaffe, in winning the primary. Never say never.

Political Humor

"During the GOP debate on Saturday night, Jon Huntsman spoke Chinese. Not to be outdone during the debate, Newt Gingrich ate Chinese." - Conan O'Brien

["The Donald" Trump is currently feuding with Jon Huntsman over Twitter. I'm not sure if Jon Huntsman really translated what he said in Chinese at last weekend's debate, but I think it was something he overheard from businessmen while in China: "You should have seen how we took advantage of the guy with the big mouth and the bad hair."]

"During yesterday’s debate, Mitt Romney said he wasn’t a career politician, and Newt Gingrich told him to drop the “pious baloney.” Of course, when Romney dropped it, Newt was like, “Hey, you gonna eat that pious baloney?”" - Jimmy Fallon

[It sounds to me like sound dietary advice. If you saw Gingrich's sausage making in Congress, you wouldn't want to touch his baloney...


It brought back those painful memories when Speaker Gingrich and President Clinton went to McDonald's for lunch together. Gingrich would pass the bill and the President would refuse to sign for it.]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Styx, "The Best of Times"