I do believe that man is a rope between animal and superman. But the superman I'm thinking of isn't Nietzsche's. The real superhuman, man or woman, is the person who's rid himself of all prejudices, neuroses, and psychoses, who realizes his full potential as a human being, who acts naturally on the basis of gentleness, compassion, and love, who thinks for himself and refuses to follow the herd. That's the genuine dyed-in-the-wool superman.
Philip José Farmer
Policy Quote of the Day
The impetus for broader social insurance reform comes from the recognition that existing programs have substantial undesirable effects on incentives and therefore on economic performance. Unemployment insurance programs raise unemployment. Retirement pensions induce earlier retirement and depress saving. And health insurance programs increase medical costs. Governments are driven by a desire to reduce the economic waste and poor macroeconomic performance that these disincentives create and to avoid the resulting tax consequences as well as the increased tax cost of the aging population. - Martin Feldstein, "Rethinking Social Insurance"Obama: Last of America's Big Government Presidents?
If you're Obama, you've got to feel fairly good about your chances, given the fact that you just got hit by one of the worst midterm rebukes in American history with House Democrats reduced to their lowest numbers in decades, you have a weak jobless recovery, still millions underwater since you took office (never mind millions joining the labor force), never mind a labor force that requires a million jobs a year just to accommodate population growth in the labor force, you have added, in absolute terms, a record 40% to the national debt, on track to exceeding your predecessor's amount over 2 terms just in one term with the economy being technically in recovery over 2 years now, you've gone below 40% job approval in the daily Gallup poll on multiple occasions and you've just suffered the first Treasury debt downgrade in generations.
Yet if you look at comparative polls, you've won 2 of 4 polls this month against a generic GOP opponent, you've lost only one head-to-head matchup against anybody in the GOP field (Romney), and your most competitive opponent Romney has lost every GOP poll this month and is regularly being attacked as "Obama Lite".
A recent Gallup poll, however, indicates that the ground has shifted AGAINST Obama's Big Government philosophy:
- For the first time, Americans believe most of their tax dollars are wasted by the government (51 cents on the dollar)
- Just under 60% (57%), a record high, believe that the federal government has no credibility on the ability to solve domestic problems (a primary focus of progressive Democrat policies)
- In the last 8 years, the percentage of Americans believing that the federal government has grown too large, too powerful at the expense of individual liberties has gone from under a third to a half (49%).
- We have record 80% disapproval of Congress, nearly 70% of no confidence in Congress, and just over a half of those polled have little or no confidence in current or prospective elected officials
The problem, though, is that the American people are not seeing any new flexibility from the President or the Senate Democrats to seriously engage the GOP House in compromise: the President's jobs bill is simply Stimulus v. 2.0 Lite. He's still pushing class warfare politics, he's now gone from doubling unemployment compensation period to proposing 3 years; he's gone from a 2-point decease in cutting payroll taxes (which fund entitlements, thus worsening the liabilities issue) to suggesting an extension to a 3-point decrease. Did he back his own bipartisan deficit reduction commission suggestions? No. His last budget got unanimously voted down in the Democrat-controlled Senate. The Democratic-controlled Senate hasn't even passed a recent budget. Unpopular health care legislation was passed without a single GOP vote and has been found unconstitutional by multiple courts.
I do not think that 2012 voters are going to take out their frustrations on the GOP because the President and Democratic-controlled Senate were locking in their tax, spend, and regulate agenda from the 111th Congress. This is not merely wishful thinking: I think the Senate Democrats and the President are going to thrown out. Recall Obama is only one of the few Democrat candidates to win the Presidency over the last several decades with a majority vote (53%). He lost the moderates and independents last fall and his ratings have been under 50% for several months. The moderates and independents have seen Obama's attempts to move to the center during a general campaign and turn left after the election: fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice,... I don't see how Obama gets back just to breakeven on jobs and the unemployment rate in 14 months, and I think the control of the Senate will change. Right now many, if not most, believe that North Dakota is a sure pickup for the GOP, and the Republicans also have a solid shot at unseating Bill Nelson of NE, picking up the open seats in New Mexico, Virginia and Wisconsin, and the defending incumbents in Missouri and Montana. I think Ohio, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Florida are all in play depending on the race at the top of the ballot and the candidates winning the nomination. Many put New York, Delaware and Maryland in the safe Dem category, but I would be intrigued if we saw Giuliani or Pataki, Mike Castle and Bob Ehrlich get into those races. The only race I see the GOP in risk of losing--at this time--is Scott Brown's, but I think even with Elizabeth Warren in the mix, Brown will pull it out, especially if Romney captures the GOP nomination, which seems likely. The electability issue is what won McCain the 2008 nomination; Romney is picking up swing states that Perry does not, he's doing better than Perry in one-on-one matchups with Obama, and Romney is hands down the best debater in the field.
The reason I put emphasis on the Senate is because I think voters will question Obama's ability to work with a Republican-controlled Congress. I don't think the American people want analysis paralysis coming out of next year's election: they want action and accountability.
Some initial ideas for the GOP Presidential candidate next fall:
- focus on economic instability, riots, massive deficits and austerity measures in Europe and point out that Obama's political goals have been consistent with the unsustainable policies of European social democrats; Europe is now facing its days of reckoning for overpromising, just as Obama has been doing
- question Obama's long list of broken promises (where do we start: Gitmo, the stimulus bill, the Bush tax cuts, etc.), his legislative priorities, his leadership and decision-making style, and his provocative foreign policy
- promise making America a good place to do business in with competitive, lower, simpler tax rates and regulatory burden, lower the government footprint and simplify points of contact
- cut spending across the board and the deficits, eliminate duplication and waste in government spending
- deliver on bipartisanship, not just talk about it
- fix entitlement programs, outsource and/or delegate government functionality to the states
- streamline government operations. Among the first federal employees to be laid off: IRS agents, six-figure managers and staffers, and pencil-pushing bureaucrats
Coke CEO Attacks Anti-Business US Government: Thumbs UP!
CEO Muhtar Kent is not partisan in his criticism, but it's very clear which party is more consistent with the issues raised by his critique.
First, he basically points out the need for territorial treatment of business income. (Obama has been very clear that he is not happy about companies not paying US (higher) taxes on income overseas until those profits are returned to the US.)
Second, he complains that it is actually easier to do business with a Communist country like the People's Republic of China where Coke is midway to investing $7B over 6 years, despite China accounting for less than 10% of global sales; it is investing another $3B in Russia (that bastion of liberty where Putin recently announced he will take over the Presidency again after serving a term as Prime Minister) over 5 years. How much in North America this year? $1.3B. To put it in simple terms: streamline approvals (cut down the critical path), make it simpler, not more complex to do business, be more competitive in terms of taxes and regulations, provide single point of contacts to get things done. This is obvious to any MBA like myself, but of course we have an anti-business Obama White House.
Third, he wants a more stable political environment and closure over unpredictable (e.g., short-term or expiring) tax and regulatory policies, less divisive (e.g., class warfare) rhetoric, (implied) more pro-growth policies, less government intervention or micromanagement (let business be business), and competition for investment capital. He also wants faster, flexible responses to policy changes by our global competitors (business tax brackets have been sticky, while other countries, even Japan, cut their top business tax rates).
I have repeatedly discussed these concepts, referring to usability concerns. The US government has a Ptolemaic view whereby business and individual taxpayers are expected to give their resources and do what they are told at the convenience of omnipotent bureaucrats whom serve at the center of the universe; we face a Procrustean tax and regulatory system. We need a Copernican-style paradigm shift with government focusing on enabling businesses and individuals to exercise their economic liberty.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Fleetwood Mac, "Think About Me"
