Travel only with thy equals or thy betters;
if there are none, travel alone.
The Dhammapada
Blog Update
Blog readership continued its long-term downward trend with only one bounce since last October. There could be a number of factors: a more streamlined format of my daily posts; disagreements with posted opinions; segment selection; and/or unidentified factors. It's possible that readership is finally bottoming out, but I've repeatedly said that the integrity of my commentaries is more important than readership numbers.
The international readership was once again negligible with an interesting note that I didn't get a single Danish pageview. (Denmark is the source for the dominant proportion of all-time international pageviews.) Perhaps the dip in international readership reflects my more focused attention on domestic policy over the past few weeks. India was the biggest source of pageviews, followed by Germany.
Political Potpourri
Over the past week or so President Obama's approval numbers have clustered in the lower 40's, with Gallup showing 40% for days leading to today's 41%. No doubt Obama's abysmal handling of the debt ceiling crisis has impacted his ratings, and today's announcement of a last-minute tentative deal will likely give him a small bounce, but I think Obama is in serious trouble, not yet reflected in polls. The revised downward GDP growth numbers for the first quarter and the lower-than-expected second quarter numbers are bad. There have been recent high tech hiring drops reported, and we continue to see drops in states and local governments employment in response to the new economic realities. Job numbers reflect more sticky attrition than new hiring.
I think Obama has dug his own ditch that not even a Government Motors vehicle can get out of. Whatever steps Obama has tried haven't worked using veterans of the fabled Clinton Administration economic team, including a massive stimulus bill; he has an unpopular health care law that puts at risk Medicare funding and puts many private sector health care benefits at risk; he mishandled the BP oil spill, with gasoline prices much here than when he took office; Afghanistan is still a sinkhole of American blood and treasure and NATO hasn't been able to get rid of a pathetic north African dictator; convoluted "reform" laws have resulted in regulatory analysis paralysis; and we have seen an unsatisfactory resolution of the debt ceiling crisis. The liberal/progressive base is furious with what they believe as Obama's capitulation on class warfare taxes and his giveaways on entitlements (mostly retirement eligibility reform). Latinos think that Obama has not delivered on immigration reform, and environmentalists don't believe that he has delivered on the climate change agenda. Union bosses have invested millions but haven't gotten card check passed. Obama is facing a multi-front retreat as his ability to throw money at problems has been sharply curtailed.
I think we are seeing the first signs of recognition or cracks in the Democratic brand as economic realities, as Chicago Mayor Emanuel finds himself taking on unsustainable work rules against public sector unions and even progressive bastion Massachusetts has embraced public sector union reform. The Democrats, of course, will insist their public sector union reforms are "more equal" than GOP-led union reforms in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and elsewhere; you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.
My general perception is that Michele Bachmann's honeymoon is over; she may do well in Iowa but that would mostly reflect a favorite son status. I haven't formally timed coverage of GOP candidates on Fox News Channel but I can only recall seeing Romney on an occasional Fox prime time guest along with saturation coverage of Bachmann and other candidates (almost hourly whining of how unfair the media are to Bachmann and Palin), far out of proportion to their poll numbers. Texas Governor Rick Perry seems to be gaining on the position as the all-but-announced first tier competitor, just a point behind second-place Bachmann, to Mitt Romney, ahead of the pack by almost 9 points. The generic GOP candidate holds a 2.5 point lead over Obama.
A Bipartisan Debt Ceiling Deal? Initial THUMBS UP!
A First Step...
I am, in fact, a "big vision" guy. I'll tell you where I think we'll eventually end up getting to: the federal government is going to have to reorganize any entitlement programs where we merge elderly and general poverty programs; the government restricts its involvement in the health care industry to guaranteeing catastrophic coverage; the government means-tests any entitlement distributions, deferring any unpaid benefits based on existing assets and other sources of incomes; the government needs to leverage its resources, partnering with charitable organizations or home/private sector initiatives (e.g., providing children with an incentive to house their senior-age parents). We need to merge assistance programs and lower eligibility across the board; the middle class should be weaned off government
I could go on for pages and pages, but let's be real: the 60% of the federal budget going to entitlements is simply unsustainable, PERIOD, and the minute you even begin to suggest cutting benefits the special interest groups like AARP come out of woodwork to kick the can to, eat the seed corn of the next generation. Never mind you didn't pay full cost at the front end to pay for your likely retirement costs to the government given your longer lifespan: AARP wants you to know it's perfectly fair and reasonable on your part to receive $3 in benefits for any $1 you and/or your employer paid into the system on your behalf. It's not really stealing from the next generation: you paid for it fair and square with your lobbyists and votes! "Ask not what I can do for my country; ask now what my country can do for me!"--this is the new Democratic mantra from Space Cadet No Class Nancy Pelosi and the Pied Piper of Failed Liberalism, Barack Obama!
Who is this JFK anyway? Could he even get elected in today's Democratic Party with his nefarious "cut taxes on higher-income workers" policies? His surviving daughter knew her priorities while flirting for Hillary Clinton's former NY Senate seat: if we only let gays and lesbians marry (their own gender), the heavens will open, the national debt will evaporate, wars will end, and all will be good in the world!
Going back to the compromise outline I linked to above, the GOP wins nearly $3T in cuts the Democrats never wanted in the first place over the next decade in two phases of cuts without the class warfare tax hike Obama wanted; Obama gets debt ceiling increases (averting a logistics, politically disastrous nightmare of government payments) that shelve future debt ceiling votes until after his coming reelection battle.
Am I happy? Of course not! When we are dealing with Obamaian $1.3T deficits, $300B covers less than a quarter of the gap. Keep in mind these projections don't even take into account the smoke and mirrors ObamaCare megalomaniac delusion. And I already know ObamaCare is going to blow up the budget; there are very few things you can depend on in life, but ObamaCare is a baked-in Big Government Bubble burst waiting to happen. The financial future of this country depends on declaring ObamaCare null and void.
I don't go around fear-mongering in this blog. I prefer to put a positive spin on things. I've written many posts on Glenn Beck's apocalyptic nonsense. The beginning of the end is when the first major corporation decides to test the water and jettison its own health care plan--because the penalty is far less expensive than providing the benefit.... If and when the first company does this, all hell will break loose. The Democrats are DONE if and when it happens, but it'll be too late. You can bet your government-subsidized mortgage on it....
In any event, Senator Coburn (R-OK) is one of the only politicians with testicular fortitude to tell you that we need to be talking an $8T or $9T deal. The GOP is off to a good start imposing discipline on the Democratic spendthrifts. But quite frankly, this is just the down payment. If the GOP doesn't manage to do a hell of a lot more, the credit rating agencies will drop the other foot. At some point we HAVE to bring consumption taxes into the picture, but I want that money dedicated to retiring existing public debt; no more blank checks for the Democrats to buy their next election seats, including the one in the White House.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Eagles, "Already Gone"
