Quote of the Day
Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.
Benjamin Franklin
Revolution in Egypt? An Alternate Perspective
I watched a few hours of coverage on the Egypt crisis today on Fox News. Any regular reader of this blog knows that I mostly sidestep foreign issues, except to argue for tree trade. In multiple posts, I've talked about streamlining our foreign relationships, minimizing our entanglements, and learning to choose our battles carefully (because we don't have the resources to be the world's policeman). I'm not an isolationist; I don't buy into Ron Paul's provocative belief that somehow our foreign policy sins triggered the 9/11 attacks, and I do think we have to be vigilant and proactive against America's enemies whom may be motivated, beyond our control, by a number of factors (e.g., our economic or military prowess (in a zero-sum analysis), influence, core democratic principles, alliances, false beliefs, etc.) In fact, I was in favor of our logistic support of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, and I would have supported stronger assistance from the Obama Administration in favor of Iran's Green Revolution.
As most people know, Anwar Sadat's vice president, Hosni Mubarak, succeeded him after the former president's assassination at the hands of a military plant from a radical Islamic offshoot of the banned Muslim Brotherhood (under Egypt's secular constitution) because of what was seen as the betrayal in terms of a peace treaty with Israel. Mubarak's government is widely regarded as autocratic; elections are viewed cynically, and food and other prices are soaring beyond the disposable income of many Egyptians whom feel are being left behind (particularly young, underemployed).
There have been crowds which have seen Iraq's fledging democracy take hold and recent uprisings elsewhere in the Middle East. But one unsettling issue is the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood looks like it's trying to co-opt the secular rebellion, just as religious authorities had in the late 1970's had co-opted the secular rebellion against the Shah of Iran.
It's very clear that the Obama Administration is treading a very thin line here. A lot depends on how vested the military is in Mubarak's leadership; I have absolutely no doubt that the lessons of how Iran brutally repressed the Green Revolution were not lost on Mubarak. If, in fact, Mubarak is deposed, the Obama Administration wants to be seen as supportive of America's democratic ideals and a friend of the new (hopefully secular) government; on the other hand, the Mubarek government, however autocratic it may be, has been helpful on the War on Terror and has stood by its controversial peace treaty with Israel. The last thing Washington wants is a successor government which breaks with Israel and adds to instability in the region. Mubarak has promised reforms before, but it's almost like a dieter acting on New Year's resolution to lose weight: the first few weeks are fine, but then old habits gradually reassert themselves.
A worrisome element is the fact that Muslims attend services on Friday, and clerics apparently encouraged today's civil unrest. As the day's events unfolded, Internet and other communications were cut off, tear gas was used to disperse crowds, and there were rumors that Mubarak might go into exile. But a determined Mubarak was defiant, accepted the resignation of his cabinet, and promised reforms. My subjective feel of the situation suggests that Mubarak will survive this incident, just as Iran's theocracy survived its popular uprising.
What disturbed me during Fox News' coverage was an inane series of commentators whom seemed to be Bush Administration veterans (including Dana Perino, the former Bush press secretary, whom, in my opinion, has never measured up to the late Tony Snow and never will). I don't recall seeing Bush's Secretaries of State Powell and Rice on Fox News other than general news clips. The general gist of the commentary was to accuse the Obama Administration of incompetently betraying the pro-democratic agenda, and Perino came as close as I've ever seen to criticizing Bush, suggesting he didn't push Mubarak hard enough on political reforms. John Bolton, on the other hand, seemed to be the voice of reason among all the commentators I heard.
My personal take? I don't think it is our place to tell other countries how to elect or select their leaders. I don't think making possible the election between an Egyptian version of Barack Obama or Sarah Palin is a panacea. I do think that we shouldn't revisit the early occupational mistakes in Iraq, where the Sunnis were excluded from the nascent government and civil service. From my perspective, Bush did not sufficiently promote one of the key principles of our democratic republic: the guarantee of individual/minority rights. We know what has happened to the small population of Iraqi Christians following a government largely drawn, not between secular parties, but competing Muslim-dominated ones. One of the things that appealed to me about the Green Revolution was the fact it seemed to imply a rejection of a theocratic dictatorship. But I don't think we need to push our style of government on Egyptians. I believe it is in the best interests of Egypt's future that it provides greater economic and political freedom, guarantees equal opportunity to political, social or business leadership, maintains the secular nature of its government, and guarantees the civil rights of its minorities.
Education Potpourri
I was watching a spot on Bill O'Reilly's show earlier this week when he brought up in a segment with two Fox News contributors the Amy Chua kerfuffle (i.e., why Asian mothers are superior: Amy explains that the hard-earned academic accomplishments in American schools by Asian immigrants and other Asian Americans is culturally based, including an almost fanatical obsession with their child's academic success, including time spent outside of school and at home). Of course, Bill O'Reilly is an "expert" because in his prior career, he used to be a teacher, quickly dismissed Amy Chua's analysis (he claimed that all kids needed these days is a little more discipline) and suggested that Amy Chua did a bad job as a mother, all but an abusive parent cheating her kids out of their childhood. See if you can follow this, Mr. Bill: whereas one should not stereotype people, the fact is that Asian students face the same teachers, resources, classroom constraints, etc., at school. What's fundamentally different is the level of parental involvement, not genetic superiority. Passing judgment from your own culturally-driven experience to Amy Chua's valid personal experience is grossly unfair.
George Will has penned an interesting column: "States can handle school reform". There are a couple of basic points that Will is trying to get across: first, schools are administered at the local/state level, and conservatives would rather leave decisions closer to the place of the education experience through the federalist concept of our state and national government. Second, improvements in education have a direct relationship to increases in GDP. He points out some of the same points I've raised, e.g., class size doesn't account for the observed differences in academic performance because Asian classes are often up to 50% larger and yet the students still outperform American students.
Finally, ABC-TV provided a segment on an Ohio woman whom lied about where she lived so she could send her kids to a better public school. If I was on that jury: NOT GUILTY. God bless the mother whom so loves her kids that she is willing to do almost anything to give them the opportunities she probably never had. WE NEED COMPETITION IN EDUCATION.
Political Humor
This just in: A little while ago the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that Rahm Emanuel can run for mayor of Chicago. The law in Chicago is very clear: Dead people can vote and live people can run. - Jay Leno
[That's right: the dead members of the Illinois State Supreme Court ruled in favor of Rahm Emanuel...]
Someone hacked the account of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Or not really hacked. Someone asked for his password and he surrendered it. - Jimmy Kimmel
[Hackers broke into the Facebook account of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and posted a message that he will not run again next year. The hackers didn't specify how they managed to get in, but rumor has it that Sarkozy's password was WHITEFLAG.]
Musical Interlude: One-Hit Wonders/Instrumentals
A-ha, "Take on Me"
