He who is drowned is not troubled by the rain.
Chinese Proverb
Presidential Address on Iraq: Mixed Review
I'm rather intrigued by how Obama will try to reinvent himself after the upcoming political tsunami this November. I can't see him ever admitting, like Bill Clinton did, that the era of Big Government had passed. I suspect that what he'll do is consistent with a recurring pattern of behavior: he'll pay lip service and only make marginal efforts, e.g., his handling of offshore leases (even before the BP spill) and mostly symbolic measures to cut spending and hold down federal pay increases.
Probably the biggest takeaway for me was Obama's acknowledgment of President Bush's contribution in stabilizing a situation which could have resulted in a regional war, although his praise was understated, simply referring to Bush's love of the troops, country and commitment to security, not Bush's decision to try an ultimately successful new counter-insurgency strategy. To be sure, Obama made some self-serving statements over the patriotism of dissidents and he makes a rather weak case, in my view, comparing Bush's with his own surge strategy in Afghanistan.
I do think that it is time for Iraq and Afghanistan to make the most of the unprecedented, historic opportunity that America's blood and treasure have given them. In life, there are no guarantees. I don't think it was wise for Obama to publicly discuss a timetable for withdrawal before a single new surge soldier touched down in Afghanistan.
Perhaps this speech is Obama's equivalent of Bush's famous "mission accomplished" photo opp. But it also appears to me that Obama is mostly focused on tactical vs. strategic foreign policy. Diplomatic style is certainly important, but in my judgement, Obama has the same "vision" deficit that G.H.W. Bush had. But let me end this commentary with a starting point: we have to acknowledge we do not rule the universe and cannot guarantee leadership and policies in other countries to our liking, and we have limited troops and resources which must be able to deal flexibly and responsively with more salient, compelling adversaries and risks.
The Mid-Term Elections Are Coming
Jay Cost of RealClearPolitics has an interesting post out today that "Health Care Has Endangered the Democratic Majority." Yes, the economy, the budget deficit and national debt are important, but Jay persuasively argues that the real deterioration in Democratic support came when the Democrats ignored the high unpopularity of the corrupt Senate Democratic Health Care Bill and responded to Scott Brown's (R-MA) election to Ted Kennedy's old seat by steamrolling opposition in passing the law. Most impressively is the fact that the GOP is leading or tied in all the generic ballots, including an unprecedented 10-point advantage in a recently completed Gallup poll. I don't see this reversing without a significant interim uptick in national economic indicators, which I don't believe is in the cards.
This is not to say that I'm a shill for the Republicans. I believe it's critically important that they develop something over the next 2 months like the Contract with America, a mandate for the mid-term elections that not even Obama can ignore. What I particularly want to see is a strong dose of pragmatic politics, not ideological stalemate...
Political Humor
Even more originals:
- What did Speaker Nancy Pelosi tell Minority Leader John Boehner about his birthday present in her office? "We have to pass the bill so you can find out what's in it."
- A liberal invited himself to lunch with a conservative and told the waiter that he'll have what his colleague ordered. Luckily the conservative managed to grab a hot dog on his way back to the office...
Musical Interlude: The American Songbook Series
Bing Crosby, "Don't Fence Me In"
