This is a big deal because Indiana is normally a red state, and Bayh had double-digit leads in recent polls. (Obama narrowly defeated McCain in the state in 2008.) But there is no doubt that in the aftermath of Scott Brown's stunning victory last month in Massachusetts, overcoming a 31-point lead in mere weeks, no incumbent will be safe given an angry electorate, and Bayh has been forced to take a number of very high profile votes in favor of a hugely expensive, ultra-partisan progressive agenda.
I think that two incidents were the final straw--the defeat of the establishment of the bipartisan budget reduction commission 53-46 (to meet the filibuster limit of 60), with the 'no' votes equally divided between the two parties. [As I explained in my Feb. 7 post, I supported this; what is not immediately obvious is why a number of conservative senators voted against it, e.g., Coburn (OK-R) and DeMint (SC-R), but there are at least 3 reasonable objections: (1) you can't take big entitlements like social security off the table (although the Baucus amendment excluding social security [which I opposed] carried unanimously, so that wasn't a salient reason); (2) it was a Trojan horse for raising taxes; and (3) the "all-or-nothing" approach violates traditional Senate vote prerogatives and accountability. However, I think the atmosphere in Washington is so partisan, this vehicle may be the only effective way to provide political cover for unpopular spending cuts.]
The second issue was Senate Majority Reid's decision to refashion a more partisan bill than a bipartisan jobs bill. I think clearly Senator Bayh is unhappy with Reid, and news reports suggest that he did not give Reid advance notice of his announcement. Bayh held more centrist positions as governor.
I do not think the American Conservative Union has updated its ratings yet through 2009, although it's safe to assume that as a reliable vote for the Obama progressive agenda, Bayh certainly didn't improve his ratings, which stood at a cumulative 21%. Whereas this is substantially higher than most progressive senators (e.g., Obama comes in at 10%), it's less than Nebraska Senator Bill Nelson ("Cornhusker Kickback")'s 47%, which is comparable to the liberal Maine Republican senators. In part, I think this was due to Bayh's window-dressing his progressive credentials leading up to his aborted run for the 2008 Democratic nomination; over the past 40 years, the Democrats have only nominated 2 centrists (Carter and Clinton), both Southern Democrats. It is very difficult for a centrist to get nominated, in part because the activists in the Democratic camp are highly motivated progressives. I believe that the parties will turn to centrists only from a standpoint of a prior blowout election against an ideological candidate, e.g., conservative Goldwater was followed by moderate Nixon, liberal Dukakis was followed by moderate Clinton, or to be competitive in blue or purple states (e.g., the 2008 nomination of John McCain).
I can only speculate: It's possible that Bayh is playing a game of political chess, looking to compete for the 2016 nod, especially if Obama gets voted out in 2012 in a Carter-like fashion. He could then posture himself as a centrist, more administratively experienced alternative to Obama, with a more authentic commitment to bipartisanship.
Security Guards in Name Only: Unacceptable
After I arrived in Orlando after officer training several years ago and looked for a new apartment, I stayed in a temporary base BOQ duplex with a shared bathroom. One afternoon I heard a woman screaming for help in the adjoining apartment; she managed to escape into the bathroom and started pounding on my bathroom door, desperately pleadingfor my assistance. I let her through, and the guy attempted to follow her, but I blocked his way as she made her way out my front door. He was furious with me, allegedly interfering in a private matter between his "wife" and him and threatening to kill me, as I shoved him back into the bathroom using my door. (I reported the incident to base security, which laughed off the guy's threats.)
In my last apartment complex, I often heard this guy screaming in the apartment above me (I lived in a small, maybe 12-unit, 3-floor building on the bottom floor). One day his girlfriend started screaming for help in the hallway of my building. When I came out of my apartment I saw her purse and other items scattered down the half-stairwell from her apartment (I lived in an apartment just below ground level, and there is a half flight of stairs from her apartment to the front door); he had followed her out of the building and blocked her attempts to leave in a white car parked in front, about 100 feet from the building entrance. It was a rainy day. The young woman was alternately crying and screaming at him, "How could you do this to me?...You're going to go to jail for this...I don't want to see you in jail." Eventually she spotted me at the building entrance and ran for the door; she was a petite, slightly-built lady, flopping about in jeans probably a foot too long for her, soaked by the drizzling rain. The guy followed her, roughly my height and twice her size. The woman was sporting a very nasty, purplish left eye and pleaded with me to call the police. The guy in turn chimed in, also asking me to call the police, telling me to look at what she did to him (I didn't see anything, but it didn't take 4 college degrees to figure out what had happened). The one thing I knew was that I wasn't going to let him hit her again and stayed with her until the police pulled up a few minutes later (another resident must have heard her and called the police).
It was a very surreal experience, because she tried to stop the abusive boyfriend from being handcuffed by the male cop, while the female officer talked to her. The girlfriend told the police officer that she didn't want him to go to jail, that it was the drugs that made him do it, and he wasn't a bad guy while he was off drugs. She felt all he needed was for the police to give him a stern talking to, that that would be enough to get him off drugs. She said that the drugs made him paranoid, that he was convinced that I and an upstairs neighbor I never met were in a conspiracy to gas his apartment and that he was being watched by the FBI. The policewoman then wanted to go into her apartment with her to discuss matters further, and I made sure the police had my contact information (but I never got contacted). I felt sorry for this young lady, as if she was one of my sisters or nieces; if I had known where her parents lived, I would have driven her home myself.
I understand that people don't want to get involved, that it's none of their business, that for all they know, the other party might be carrying a weapon and use it against them. But we have a moral obligation as fellow citizens to do what we can and not simply rationalize cowardice or inaction. Violence against women (or anyone for that matter) is fundamentally wrong, and we need to do what we can under the circumstances, as we would expect from others if our own relatives or friends were threatened with violence.
The fact that so-called professional Seattle metro bus security guards were immediately in the presence as one woman was being viciously beaten by another, without their so much as addressing the aggressor, demanding that she cease and desist immediately. I'm not interested in excuses; I don't care about legal small print regarding what does or doesn't constitute the security guard's responsibilities: a security guard who stands by while a woman is brutally beaten in his presence is no better than a lifeguard whom stands by as a distressed swimmer struggles to breathe. I do not know the specific circumstances of these security guards, but they should be terminated, and if their employer is a government contractor, that contract should be cancelled and awarded to a more responsible competitor. (And if these guys are being protected by some dysfunctional union standing behind them...)
Quote of the Day
A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd. - James Crook
Political Cartoon
Clay Jones represents the fact that Obama is constantly rationalizing his poor performance with the economy, using Bush as a convenient scapegoat for a problem which had many significant contributors, including regulators, financial institutions, auditors, credit rating agencies, and legislators of both political parties (note that the Democrats had control of the Senate for half the time Bush was in office).
Musical Interlude: Country Male Vocalists
Garth Brooks, "Make You Feel My Love"
Charlie Rich, "Behind Closed Doors"
Buck Owens, "Tall Dark Stranger" (at last.fm, player in upper right)
Tom T. Hall, "I Love"
