Iranians are looking not to Barack Obama
but Neda Soltani for inspiration
in their power struggle with the regime
Masoud Golsorkhi, guardian.co.uk
Debunking the Obama Administration's Rationale for Politically Expedient Foreign Policy
First, they are arguing against the US meddling in Iranian internal affairs, noting that the US hands in the past are not entirely clean. Of course, the anti-American regime made relevant charges anyway, even though the US had no voice in cleric-approved candidate selection, the election or scoring of results. But the fact of the matter is that Vice President Joe Biden went to Lebanon in May just before the elections and made it clear that victory of a Hezbollah-led coalition, essentially a proxy for de facto Syrian and Iranian interference in Lebanese internal affairs, would have repercussions in Western aid. This played directly into the hands of anti-Western propagandists of the Hezbollah, but the pro-Western coalition won a clear majority. No doubt the experience of the internationally isolated Hamas-led Gaza Strip had not gone unnoticed. However worthy Biden's objective, the Obama Administration cannot claim neutrality as a consistent policy with respect to elections.
Second, the Obama Administration has claimed that it doesn't have enough evidence regarding the Iranian election to make a judgment. Let's first start with Iran's inflation rate, which according to its own central bank, is 23.6%, a slowing growth rate (despite oil exports) of 3.2%, down by over 50% over the last 2 years, and a 17% unemployment rate. What incumbent American President would win by a landslide running on those numbers?
In fact, polls in Iran seemed to indicate a tightening of the race; three pre-election polls I've seen showed Ahmadinejad leading in each, but his percentage of votes decreasing by recency, i.e., 58.6, 44.8, and 34%, the latter with a significant portion of "undecided" voters. (I do not have enough information to validate these polls, but a tightening race is consistent with American voting patterns.) I will say that in US experience, an incumbent politician polling under 50% heading into an election, with a large number of undecideds and an above-average turnout, almost inevitably loses; he or she almost certainly never wins in a landslide. The point is that the incumbent is well-known, and undecideds/independents normally break in favor of the challenger (because committed voters have already declared for the incumbent). I also believe there is a socially desirable bias in favor of Ahmadinejad in these polls (meaning his support was overstated).
What's particularly compelling is a rigorous statistical analysis from Chatham House, investigating the vote changes from 2005 to 2009. Among other things, the authors debunk a myth about Ahmadinejad's strength in rural areas; they also point out that a number of voters in these areas are from minority groups unsympathetic to hardliners like the incumbent, e.g., Arabs and Kurds. They point out (1) two conservative (i.e., Ahmadinejad-leaning) provinces had more than 100% turnout, a physical impossibility; (2) Ahmadinejad swept rural provinces which rejected him four years ago and which also rejected conservative candidates in two previous elections; he more than doubled the number of conservative voters since his first election in 2005, and in a third of the provinces, not only would Admadinejad have to carry all new and non-reformist voters, but he would have had to take away almost half of all reformist voters from the prior 3 elections; (3) there is no statistically significant relationship between increases in turnout and any one candidate (i.e., an Ahmadinejad "surge"), and the massive increases in voter participation and a disappearing variance in regional turnout percentage over 2005 are implausible.
In fact, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, spokesman for the hardline conservative Guardian Council has admitted that 50 cities showed more votes than registered voters, possibly accounting up to 3 million votes; this concession is in response to over 600 allegations of voting irregularities filed by the opposition. But Ayatollah Khamenei already shut the door last Friday, attesting to the results. (The Council has just ruled out a revote, which Mousavi and others have demanded, claiming no "major fraud" occurred.) You would think that a number of unelected clerics attesting to the validity of fraudulent results would find their own moral authority undermined; how did voter fraud occur in the first place without the implicit knowledge and consent of the clerics?
Third, they are responding to the earlier, more critical response by the Europeans, arguing apples and oranges, pointing out, unlike the Europeans, America does not have diplomatic relations with Iran. That seems disingenuous, because, in fact, America has not been similarly restrained on other matters, including Iran's nuclear ambitions, and it doesn't explain why America didn't lead or at least coordinate an earlier, joint statement of condemnation of the Iranian crackdown on nonviolent demonstrators, protests being a right included in the Iranian constitution, with her European allies.
Fourth, the administration claims that the election doesn't make any difference: pick your poison, because, in fact, Mousavi in his earlier career as the [now defunct] prime minister pushed for the Iranian nuclear program. It is true that the unelected Iranian clergy do filter candidates, but there are differences in leadership. Whereas I agree that the US government should not endorse a candidate, but I believe, from Obama's recent speech in Cairo, one of the major candidates clearly addressed his key concerns more directly. Consider the following abridged excerpts:
- "Six million Jews were killed – more than the entire Jewish population of Israel today. Denying that fact is baseless, ignorant, and hateful. Threatening Israel with destruction – or repeating vile stereotypes about Jews – is deeply wrong." FACT: Ahmadinejad has denied the Holocaust and calls for the destruction of Israel. FACT: Mousavi acknowledges and condemns the Nazi genocide against the Jews.
- "There will be many issues to discuss between [the US and Iran], and we are willing to move forward without preconditions on the basis of mutual respect." FACT: Ahmadinejad was quoted in April saying he was not prepared to talk to the US without preconditions of his own. FACT: Mousavi welcomes an opportunity to talk to the US.
- "I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere." Well, apparently except it comes to the Iranian dictatorship's crackdown on nonviolent demonstrators. Tell me, Obama, what was it about videos playing on computer screens across the world over a week ago that held your tongue for the better part of a week? Is what you said in Cairo, "Words? Just words?" Ahmadinejad is not change; he's just more of the same. In fact, Mousavi promoted a number of of proposals during the campaign designed to reassign control of police to elected officials, transparency of the budget, private ownership of the media, and disbanding of the morality police.
- "You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party." What part of brutal suppression of the peaceful Iranian demonstrators and the hardline conservative streamrolling of dissent relative to the fraudulent election don't you understand, Mr. President? Paying lip service in a speech in Cairo doesn't mean anything when you fail to speak up quickly and forcefully against the tyranny of the Iranian dictatorship in even this measured test of democratic principles...
- "Our daughters can contribute just as much to society as our sons, and our common prosperity will be advanced by allowing all humanity – men and women – to reach their full potential." Mousavi pledged to reform existing laws in order to eliminate discrimination (the glass ceiling) and violence against women and to relax restrictions on women's choices in apparel and appearance.
The Obama Administration is on the Wrong Side of History
In sum, I consider the response of the Obama Administration to be a textbook example of "too little, too late". I understand that there are a number of policy experts (Kissinger and others) whom agree with the measured response of the Obama Administration, whom consider the manipulated election a fact of life that's not going to change and will do little more than poison the setting of future negotiations with the actual Iranian power brokers. I think they've completely misread the situation. This is not about Mousavi. This movement has gone beyond Mousavi. We are now hearing the cries of a new generation, no longer satisfied with half measures of liberty, with a government lacking transparency and the rule of law, and the real power is held by clerics accountable to no one, where even modest or unintended deviations from expected norms of conduct and appearance are treated mercilessly as crimes by an intrusive, stifling government. We have a young generation tired of the wars, polarizing rhetoric and international isolation. For the most time I can remember, over the past week I have seen Iranian tweets on the Internet or shouting on the streets: "Death to the Ayatollah" and "Death to Ahmadinejad". I think this frustration has been building for some time now. I cannot speak for the demonstrators, but I think they saw as the final straw the complicity of the clerics in validating a stolen election having undermined their moral authority and claim for power.
The Green Revolution
The blood shed by Neda Soltan and other Iranian patriots of the new green revolution is like the blood shed by our forefathers in the battle for American independence. Neda is Iran, but even more than that: she is also our sister and our daughter. Her blood and our blood are one, for we share a common bond: unalienable human rights and the right to pursue our dreams. Our peoples have both yearned for freedom from tyranny. This fight must be decided by the Iranian people themselves; it may be a long, difficult struggle with inevitable setbacks along the way, but I assure my fellow Iranian republicans that the fight is worth it. We honor the valiant struggle and sacrifices made by our Iranian brothers and sisters bonded by the ideals of democratic republicanism. The genie is out of the bottle: the autocratic powers that be cannot contain the spirit of the Green Revolution. Long live the Green Revolution!
The Tragic Murder of Neda Soltan
Neda, Angel of Freedom
Martyr for Democracy
Martyr for Democracy
Neda, an Arabic word used more commonly in literary rather than spoken Farsi, conveys the spiritual meaning of "call" or "voice".According to friends, family, and witnesses:
On June 20, 2009, Neda [Agha-Soltan], a [27-year-old] philosophy student, was sitting in her car in traffic on Kargar Avenue in the city of Tehran, near the Amir-Abad area, accompanied by her music teacher and close friend, Hamid Panahi. They were on their way to attend a march in protest of the issues surrounding the 2009 Iranian presidential election. Having gotten out of the car because of the excessive heat, she was allegedly targeted and shot in the chest by plainclothes Basij paramilitaries who were attempting to subdue the protesters. Neda’s last words were: "I’m burning, I’m burning!"
Neda, We Will Never Forget
RIP, Sweet Angel
I am here in order to tell you that she died in her father's arms.
I am here in order to tell you that my sister had big dreams.
I am here in order to tell you that my sister was very modest [in her dreams].
She longed - just like me - after one day feeling the wind in her hair, and just like me she loved poems by Farukh, a Persian poet, and she...longed for freedom and equality.
She longed after one day being able to say I am Iranian; with her head held up high.
She longed after one day falling in love with a man with a [inaudible] haircut, giving birth to a daughter, singing lullabies at her cradle, or to plait her child's long hair.
My sister died because she was not allowed to live like a human being; my sister died because injustice would not end; my sister died because she loved life so much, and my sister died because she cared lovingly for her fellow humans well-being.
All our brothers and sisters in Iran: You are not alone!
My thoughts and prayers are with Neda's grieving fiancé, Caspian Makan, and surviving, heartbroken, loving family. Her life was done all too soon. May there come a day, not only in Iran but the world over, that we learn from Neda's passing, that violence is never the way to settle differences of political opinion, and I am convinced that God is deeply offended by those whom blaspheme by murdering the innocent in His Holy Name. Neda was a beautiful rose whom had just begun to bloom.
"Neda (You [Iranian dictatorship] Will Not Defeat the People!)"
Song/Lyrics by Johnny909
Neda was a young girl
She would not wear the hijab
She walked out on the streets of Tehran
To join the madding crowd
She felt a burning fire in her chest
And her blood began to flow
You will not defeat the people
When their lust for freedom grows
Down down go the concrete statues
Watch the faceless soldiers run
You will not defeat the people
With the bullets from your guns
Neda was a young girl
Her eyes were black as coal
She walked out on to the streets of Tehran
To take back some control
Watch her father with her face in his hands
Scream her name out to the sky
You will not defeat the people
When they learn that they can fly
(First verse again...)
You will not defeat the people
When it's freedom that they know
You will not defeat the people
Crying Neda in the streets
You will not defeat the people
Crying Neda in their sleep.
