Analytics

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Miscellany: 2/07/13

Quote of the Day
[T]here's no bad day that can't be overcome by 
listening to a barbershop quartet; 
this is just truth, plain and simple.
Chuck Sigars

Skousen's Favorite Quotes

Mark Skousen is an Austrian School economist and investment adviser. Here are 3 of his favorite quotes on taxes snd national policy (thumbs up):
  • “Little else is required to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.” — Adam Smith
  • "If everyone enjoyed the unrestricted use of his faculties and the free disposition of the fruits of his labor, social progress would be ceaseless, uninterrupted, and unfailing.” — Frederic Bastiat, “The Law” (1850)
  • “A virtuous and industrious people may be cheaply governed.” — Benjamin Franklin
1913: A Year That Lives in Infamy

Not only is this the centennial year of the Federal Reserve, but last Sunday was the centennial of the adoption of  the sixteenth amendment (national income tax) The Constitution initially restricted direct taxes (payed directly by the taxpayer/resident  vs. say, consumption taxes collected on behalf of government, e.g. sale taxes or VAT's), to apportionment among the states (e.g., based on existence or ownership): examples of direct taxes include income tax, transfer taxes (gifts or estate), entitlement taxes (social security/Medicare payroll), investment taxes, and property taxes. In Hilton v US, Justice Patterson argued the principal of apportionment was to avoid tax burden shifts by a tyrannical majority: e.g., a tax on farmland would have been borne disproportionately by the less populated agrarian Southern economy.  (I will say that SCOTUS on whether income taxes are direct has hardly been consistent. The English, especially Adam Smith whom published his influential Wealth of Nations during our Revolutionary times, considered income taxes as direct. Indirect taxes shift the burden, e.g.,  if the government taxes liquor disproportionately, I can evade the tax burden by not buying alcohol, and a business can pass along taxes, along with other costs, to its customers: Alexander Hamilton argued that overly high consumption taxes would be counterproductive because it would reduce consumption itself.  Here's Adam Smith:
Great nations are never impoverished by private, though they sometimes are by public prodigality and misconduct. The whole, or almost the whole public revenue, is in most countries employed in maintaining unproductive hands. Such are the people who compose a numerous and splendid court, a great ecclesiastical establishment, great fleets and armies, who in time of peace produce nothing, and in time of war acquire nothing which can compensate the expence of maintaining them, even while the war lasts. Such people, as they themselves produce nothing, are all maintained by the produce of other men's labour.
If direct taxes upon the wages of labour have not always occasioned a proportionable rise in those wages, it is because they have generally occasioned a considerable fall in the demand for labour....Absurd and destructive as such taxes are, however, they take place in many countries. 
The progressive income tax , enabled by the sixteenth amendment, penalizes economic success; redistribution of wealth is morally hazardous, reinforcing unproductive behavior and taking it from the very people whom can more efficiently and productively  invest it to grow the economy. A majority or near majority of wage earners receive government benefits at artificially low or no direct cost (versus other goods or benefits); they have limited incentive to check the growth of government and the size of their benefits, although such government is intrinsically unsustainable.

 Skousen notes (my edits):
 Before the income tax, the government relied primarily on property taxes, user fees and import duties to finance government operations. The income tax has financed several world wars, the welfare state, and the regulatory state. The income tax is flawed for a number of reasons — it discourages economic growth and encourages a bloated government. The true principle of taxation is the benefit principle — those who benefit from a government service should pay for it. With few exceptions, taxes should not be based on ability to pay or the sacrifice principle.
Immigration Reform: Thumbs UP!

One of the most interesting results of the Presidential race is that Asians supported Obama  with 73% of the vote, more than any other group other than African-Americans and Muslims.  Asian American students often overachieve relative to other groups, including white students, and sometimes face restrictions at elite institutions. There are a number of hypothesized explanations, including an aversion to red-meat politics, more receptive of a strong central government vs. individualism,  more inclusive political participation, cultural support for national education policy, against the influence of evangelical Christian conservatives, against aggressive foreign policy, etc.

I literally cringe every time I hear the word "amnesty" used to describe immigration policy. I also dislike the caricature of Latinos as one-issue voters. I do think, as does Alex Nowrasteh in the below video:
  • A robust guest worker program
  • Policies that welcome all highly skilled immigrants.
We have to look at the fundamental factors driving immigrants to work around existing immigration policies.  (Among other things, I would work to expand an Americas' free trade zone, immigration quotas, etc.)



Political Humor

A new study says that working fewer hours can slow global warming. So you know what that means? President Obama's economic policy is also his climate change policy. - Jay Leno

[We already knew that from last year's snow job of American voters by Obama's reelection campaign.]

The U.S. Postal Service announced they are ending Saturday delivery of the mail. Now if you have a problem and you want to complain, you can email them at USPS.com. - Jay Leno

[Check your spam filter for any postage-due emails. and you thought you got enough junk snail mail....]



It was just revealed that the Federal Reserve was hacked on Sunday. It’s pretty serious. In fact, they say the hackers could've made off with as much as negative $14 trillion. - Jimmy Fallon

[The Germans still don't know what the Fed did with their gold... Coin collectors should be careful over black market sales of those trillion dollar coins.]

After thousands of people voted on Facebook, Monopoly is replacing its iron game piece with a cat. And if that surprises you, remember — these are the people who had enough free time to vote on a new Monopoly game piece.  - Jimmy Fallon

[The railroads have been replaced by "too-big-to-fail" banks; the role of the banker is now an IRS agent and you pay him $200 when you pass go. The agent uses the new helicopter game piece and distributes Obama money at the start of the game. Beware the new Eminent Domain and IRS Audit chance cards.]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Supremes, "Baby Love"

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Miscellany: 2/06/13

Quote of the Day
Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)
Walt Whitman

"Investing in Education?"

During a recent medical diagnostic test, the technician explained she was a former elementary school teacher,  whom lost the game of teacher layoff musical chairs. She had to reinvent herself, and her current par-time diagnostic work pays better than her full-time old job. I also have a couple of teaching nieces. One of them last year had to take a second job to make ends meet.

I realize that paying lip service to "underpaid teacher" is an American political ritual. Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue: pay teachers more so better students want to become teachers.'

I completely disagree for a number of reasons. First. good students don't necessarily make good teachers. Second,  we have thrown a  lot of money at public schools with little improvement in student performance. Why not triple Congressional and Presidential salaries to lure better people into politics?

Third I want education majors motivated for intrinsic reasons. I initially intended to major in secondary education at OLL and was strongly considering a teaching order like the Jesuits or the Oblates; I expected teaching would pay enough to maintain a reasonable standard of living, but one does not consider a religious vocation for the purpose of accumulating wealth. I certainly did not major in math and philosophy because all the wealthy mathematicians or philosophers I knew,

Luce points out (and I agree):
The effects of technology are only just beginning to be felt in education and healthcare – the two most labour-intensive areas of the US economy that both suffer from productivity stagnation.
We need to reward based on merit: performance and productivity; union contracts and tenure often tie the hands of management, and in many cases school administrations are bloated. An example dysfunctional policy is paying teachers more simply for getting a second education degree.

Charter Schools Bring Competition to the Public Sector



Political Humor


According to a new traffic study, it takes longer to get to work in Washington, D.C., than any other city in the country. On the other hand, they don't do any work once they get there, so it’s pretty much a wash. - Jay Leno


[Unfortunately,the bigger problem is  the devil finds work for idle hands. ]


The Department of Justice is trying to block Anheuser-Busch from buying Corona. So they did what everyone else does — got their older brother to buy it for them.. - Jimmy Fallon

[Obama is still peeved stockholders kept Anheuser-Bush  from acquiring Obama's Own Brew.]


People are still trying to figure out why the power went out Sunday at the Super Bowl. Today they found out the reason. Turns out China cut off the electricity for nonpayment of our bill. - Jay Leno

[Why not the Federal Reserve, the Senate and the White House?]


The power went out for 35 minutes in the Superdome. It was the most highly viewed power outage since Obama's first debate with Romney. - David Letterman

[Obama was pushing for an even 700 teleprompter speeches during his first term, until his teleprompter wouldn't power on.]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Supremes, "Where Did Our Love Go". The first of a string of 5 #1 hits starting in 1964... When the Holland-Dozier-Holland Motown songwriting juggernaut met the greatest girl group ever, the result was pure magic.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Miscellany: 2/05/13

Quote of the Day
There is much satisfaction in work well done, 
but there can be no happiness equal to the joy of 
finding a heart that understands.
Victor Robinsoll

Joe Klein / Time,  "The Ice Is Breaking": part 3 
(part 2) (part 1)
There was, however, something crucial missing from the speech. The President's highest moments of passion were reserved for the celebration of the struggle for civil rights. He had nothing to say about civic responsibilities, though. There was no acknowledgment that rights come with responsibilities in a democracy, especially for those--rich and poor--who are getting special benefits from the government. There was no call to a greater sense of community at a time when we have lost the habits of citizenship.
Not to nitpick, but we live in a republic, not a democracy. Notice that Klein is attempting to obfuscate his ideological bent by throwing 'and poor" into the mix; this is clearly aimed at the rich whom allegedly haven't done their "fair share". This is little more than window-dressing for Obama's divisive class warfare rhetoric; the tacit assumption is that all the rich get special (unspecified) benefits (it's not clear what Klein expects from poor people--wait, there community agitation organizing).

But the fact is that rent-seeking doesn't involve just two income classes (and there are a number of parties that don't engage in rent-seeking activities). Keep in mind that Klein is referring to civic responsibility, not individual responsibility (e.g., not to be a burden  to society). I would agree a need to focus on individual responsibility--in fact, the first part of JFK's quote clearly ('Ask not what your county can do for you') bears on self-reliance. I think there's a definite rationale behind the quote: if I don't even care for myself, how can I care for others? Klein also fails to make his case there has been a deterioration in civic responsibility: he merely asserts it without evidence or explanation of why it's deteriorated since JFK's address.

In fact, I would submit that Obama was implicitly pushing that theme; he found a more politically correct way to rephrase his infamous "you didn't build that" point; the address deliberately sidesteps individual achievement to focus on group achievement.

I don't think Obama needs tips from Joe Klein on how to organize a community.
We have come through a difficult time. Obama's [message, is that we are now free to move on.
Oh, yes, Obama would like to think the Bush/Obama recession is behind us, but in fact we've not even dealt with a horrific deficit, we've one of the weakest, most jobless recovery in decade, decades' low in labor rate participation and the major entitlements are grossly underfunded.

Liars and Politicians

One of my favorite Austrian school economists...





Texas Vs. California

Hmm. The familiar reader must really be wondering where I stand on this--I was born in Texas, I attended and graduated from a Texas high school, all four of my college degrees are from Texas universities, California stole money from me (they disallowed an excess disability tax credit because they "lost" my W-2's and they taxed a Roth IRA installment of income that was not earned in California. The conversion was done before I ever moved to California; I never would have made the conversion knowing California would plunder my IRA. California argues that it was only right they went after me because they didn't go after people who left California. Every week I get queries from California recruiters, and even when I've been between gigs during the recession, I won't consider them,



Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Association, "Along Comes Mary".


Monday, February 4, 2013

Miscellany: 2/04/13

Quote of the Day
To love and be loved is to feel the sun from both sides.
David Viscott

Joe Klein / Time,  "The Ice Is Breaking":  part 2 (part 1)
It was a confident speech. It marked a new reality in Washington: the ice is breaking. The President has demonstrated in recent weeks that he now has a working majority in the House of Representatives for many of his initiatives. 
Joe Klein clearly had tingles going up both legs. I didn't even bother listening to it because nothing he says is different than I've heard him say at least a dozen times before: There's a danger when you've become the most overexposed President in American history. It's like the boy whom cried wolf. The only interest I have in an Obama speech is the occasional boneheaded gaffe ("you didn't build that") or lapse of civility (attacking SCOTUS at the State of the Union over Citizens United), not unlike those whom go to hockey games in the hope of seeing a fight.

Confident? Well, as term-limited Obama certainly no longer has to pretend to be a centrist, but he can risk his party's chances in subsequent elections (just ask George W. Bush). Granted, he's at a 52 approval rating now, but I think Bush was in the mid-50's. First, extending middle-class tax cuts and Hurricane Sandy relief  had broad political support; what made them difficult was the President's (or other Democrats') divisive Politics of Envy and Profligate Spending. We who do applied statistics routinely warn against generalizing from small sample sizes, and the votes here are cherry-picked. This President is stubborn, refuses to compromise/demands capitulation, procrastinates, and leads from behind; he declares in advance he won't negotiate terms for a debt ceiling, when in the real world banks charge more for riskier loans. For example, what happens to the budget when interest rates reach 5%? How is he going to find the extra money?

The mark of a truly intelligent person is a certain humility and acknowledgment of his limitations. It takes arrogance for a first-term senator with no major accomplishments, public executive experience or expertise to think he has the stuff to lead the free world. I know for a fact I would make a better President than Obama; I could pass a polygraph. Why? I've had to turn around projects where I had no formal authority. I'm more proactive; I've worked with government clients at the local, state and federal level, and I've had to cope with bureaucratic inertia. I don't have unrealistic expectations.

But nerds don't enter or win student council races in high school, and I would expect the same of myself as I would of others, e.g., public sector executive experiences. I would never claim, based on the facts  that I first visited Mexico as a newborn (and Mom said Mexican women blessed me: I used to be cute), had Mexican students at UTEP  and took 2 years of Spanish in high school, that I'm an expert on Mexico.

Of course, Klein might argue that he left himself wiggle room by saying "for many of his initiatives". The fact is that he failed to promote the same initiatives when he had control of both chambers of Congress with super-majorities. Klein is plainly attempting to suggest that just like there were Reagan Democrats, there are "Obama Republicans". I guarantee there is no such thing as a free-spending, high-regulation, high-tax Republican; and if there were, the Tea Party would primary them. There had always been conservative Dems, at least through Reagan. Two of the 3 GOP votes for the 2009 stimulus are no longer in Congress.
On Fox News, the normally reasonable Chris Wallace called the speech an "unyielding, uncompromising espousal of a liberal agenda." Which would be true if we were living in 1961. But not so much now, unless you consider the preservation of Social Security and Medicare and the acknowledgment of civil rights as a starkly liberal vision. Most Americans see these things as ... reality. There was, in fact, a presidential nod toward the American "skepticism of central authority." We must, Obama said, "make the hard choices to reduce the cost of health care" and "we understand that outworn programs are inadequate to the needs of our time," and we must "remake our government, revamp our tax code, reform our schools."
I can't believe this unprofessional jerk just took a cheap shot at the best moderator in the business. I have seen the speech; Wallace is correct (if time permits in future posts, I'll do the same thing to Obama's inaugural address I'm doing to Klein).. It is NOT the role of the federal government to fix our public schools; that's a local/state issue, and federalism distributes responsibilities between the Feds and the states; the Fed's proper role is quite limited. All this is progressive hubris and crap. Government can't reduce the health sector's costs, in part correlated with population aging, beyond government's locus of control; it can obfuscate costs and impede the functioning of the free market. Obama often pays lip service to things conservatives have argued for years, like gradually phasing in initial eligibility dates but Klein ignores what McConnell and others are saying: talk is cheap: where's the proposal? Klein doesn't seem to understand the difference between political spin and policy. This is not just a matter of opinion: Obama has been late in submitting 4 out of 5 budgets; he's even worse than my ex-students. About "revamping our tax code": who's responsible for a hiring binge at the IRS (for healthcare policy enforcement), various small business and green energy tax breaks, etc.? Not to mention a wide assortment of new tax hikes?

Rent Seeking: An Introduction

Professor Munger chooses interesting examples; I embedded a video of his discussing freeloaders several posts back. Basically rent-seeking players are trying to use the political process to their economic benefit: for example, psychologists may lobby for expanded government funding of mental health, teachers want to strengthen the education requirements before a retired engineer can teach math or science in high school, and insurance companies want individual mandates or government subsidies for covering  the losses due to policy holders whose premiums are capped below their cost.



Political Humor

Last Saturday, up in Punxsutawney, Pa., little Phil -- the groundhog -- stuck his little head out of his little hidy-hole. He looked around, but it was cloudy and he didn't see his shadow. So we have four more years of President Obama. - investment newsletter

[You know, if California university researchers can spend part of a $325K NSF grant building a robotic squirrrel, can a RoboGroundhog with infrared vision be far behind? Should we be surprised some of the rattlesnakes were able to successfully bite RoboSquirrel's head, the same way certain snakes in the grass pounce on Congressional earmarks?]

original:
  • I'm not sure about Obama skeet shooting. It isn't so much the photo, but the claim that the White House freezer is full of skeet, and he likes his skeet broiled with a touch of lemon juice and sea salt and served with arugula on the side.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Association, "Windy". This is one of those perfectly crafted, infectious pop songs (like "Walking on Sunshine". I have this picture in my mind of a fun, flirty, spontaneous, lovely sweetheart....

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Miscellany: 2/03/13

Quote of the Day
You can bear your own faults, 
and why not a fault in your wife?
Benjamin Franklin

The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia New Orleans

I'm sure everyone knows the Ravens withstood a late charge by the 49ers, 34-31. I think the 49ers are like the NFL's NY Yankees: they've had a lot of success in the Super Bowl. Take me, a hapless Vikings fan. (I've explained the story of how I became a Vikings fan in earlier posts. (I got kicked off my Little League team after an 8-year-old teammate started spreading rumors I had a (cooties-bearing) girlfriend....Where is that kid when I need him? It would make my Mom happy.) We have lost all four games; all I'm asking for is one token victory.

Of course I live in the Baltimore area. When I went to Sam's Club this weekend, several cars were flying their Ravens' pennants; I saw an older African-American couple wearing matching Ravens jackets.

Wow, this was a tale of 2 games. The Ravens had dominated play, and when the Ravens returned the second half kickoff for one of the prettiest touchdown returns I've ever seen, I thought the 49ers were done--and then the lights went out. And the 49ers made an unlikely comeback. They almost did it hut the Ravens made a memorable goal line stand. The 49ers just ran out of time. Great game. Nice to see Ray Lewis finish his career on an up note. Congratulations, Ravens!



Joe Klein / Time,  "The Ice Is Breaking": Thumbs DOWN!

I don't know many conservatives whom subscribe to Time. To be honest, it was an accidental subscription. My maternal grandfather was a subscriber to US News & World Report. (That magazine publisher really screwed up with my uncle; after my grandfather passed, my uncle (the priest) tried to get them to get them to put the subscription in his name, and they blew him off. Knowing my uncle, he would have likely renewed the subscription for life.) I had read a few issues when I visited Grandfather one Christmas--my Dad was stationed in Germany and the rest of my family was within him.  I wouldn't call USNWR conservative, but I found the content more balanced. I had extended my subscription for a few years at a good price; in 2010, US News converted to an all-digital format; I still get access to weekly softcopy issues, but to compensate me for loss of my print subscription, they arranged for a compensatory Time subscription.

Given time constraints (no pun intended), I rarely read Time cover to cover; I occasionally go to the dark side (e.g., the Huffington Post, Media Matters, the Daily Kos, the Gray Lady op-ed pages (I'm not masochistic enough to tune into the MSNBC talking heads), but really all I need is to tune into Sunday morning news talk soup.

The point is that you rarely have truly balanced moderators and panelists; Chris Wallace is an exception. I have seen  him grill bewildered conservatives on their talking points. I don't see anything comparable. You rarely hear a liberal moderator, for example, ask a Democrat about the fact of an aging population where pay-go entitlements are unsustainable with the largest generation starting to retire, about the negative economic effects of discriminatory progressive rate tax hikes, of an administration that campaigned on civil liberties when in fact there is increasing unwarranted tracking of your assets, movements, and communications where it seems courts see the Bill of Rights as narrowly defined exceptions against oppressive government--let me put a different spin on a classic line from Love Story:

"Liberty means never having to ask for permission."

Don Boudreaux of Cafe Hayek links to a Sasha  Volokh lecture on economics and law; this addresses the nonsense that economists are right-wing co-conspirators. Early in the talk he claims that 3 out of 4 economists are politically progressive with slight Keynesian leanings (i.e., supportive of government stimuli of the economy). But because there's less groupthink in economics than, say, in the humanities, the profession has been falsely characterized.

I knew that Klein has had his fair share of controversy, particularly this moment from the 2008 campaign:
"I do believe there's something weird a few of our colleagues have [against Clinton]," he said. "They tend to be Roman Catholics, actually. People like Tim Russert, Chris Matthews, Maureen Dowd. They've had it in for Bill and Hillary Clinton since Monica Lewinsky. They feel that the Clintons are trying to put one over on us all the time."
I assure you I rejected both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama; their Senate voting records were consistent.; many Catholics like myself recognize the unalienable rights of preborn children. Catholic progressive politicians (e.g., Kerry, most Kennedy's, Cuomo,  Biden, and Pelosi) and other Catholic progressive intellectuals find it politically expedient to subordinate these matters of conscience. (Clinton thought she was clever by paying lip service to making abortion rare, but it is just as evasive as saying let's make murders of first-graders rare. The devil is in the details.  Everyone might agree on goals, but goals aren't policies. Clinton would allow unfettered access to legal abortions for any or no reason.)

But more to the point it was intellectually shallow analysis. Nobody blamed Hillary Clinton for Bill's failure to tell the truth, the whole truth or nothing but the truth before an Arkansas court.  I'm sure all those people would have supported Clinton over McCain or Romney.  Whether these people were Catholic is purely coincidental. Why not say 'they tend to be white people taller than 4'6"'? I'm sure if they were in fact critical of Clinton there were other reasons, say, for example, her vote enabling the use of force against the Iraqi regime.
The speech confirmed the November results: that a political party tethered to a white, regional, rural base no longer has the electoral firepower to govern the country.
Let us recall the same party retained control of the House of Representatives. Obama (versus 2008) earned millions fewer votes, had a narrower margin of victory, and won 2 fewer states, losing half the states. Obama's strength was regional: the West Coast, the Rust Belt and Northeast. The reelection results merely confirm it's difficult to beat an incumbent, Obama (unlike Romney) did not have to compete for the nomination and was able to devote all resources to the general campaign, the Romney campaign was not up to the task: they allowed the opposition to define their candidate; and the GOP was out-organized (yet again). I would argue that vote analyses cut many ways (Obama's margin can also be attributed to the youth and women's vote), Republicans do well not just with rural voters but suburban voters, and prior GOP nominees favored immigration reforms.
The ice is breaking. The President has demonstrated in recent weeks that he now has a working majority in the House of Representatives for many of his initiatives. Tax rates have been increased with Republican votes, for the first time in 20 years. Hurricane relief for the Northeast was passed with a majority of Democrats and a minority of Republicans. The debt-ceiling gimmick has been postponed, and perhaps shelved, by Republican leaders who see the handwriting on the wall.
Absolutely delusional and shockingly incompetent analysis.. First of all, let us recall that Obama caved on the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2010 despite having majorities in both chambers of Congress; did Klein write Obama's political obituary then? I doubt it. Klein is deliberately misstating the nature of the tax legislation: it was more about making some Bush tax cuts permanent, not raising tax rates. Unlike Klein, the Gray Lady got the story right: "Senate Passes Legislation to Allow Taxes on Affluent to Rise".  The Clinton tax hikes were made permanent by Dem votes, not GOP votes. Also note that a number of both Dems and Republicans opposed the bill in both chambers of Congress. Note also that what passed was not what Obama initially wanted (200-250K); McConnell won a higher threshold for the Bush tax cuts.

Klein is also guilty of distortion in discussing hurricane relief. Republicans did not object to Hurricane Sandy relief: there were attempts to add-on non-Sandy spending, and many Republicans want to reform the financially-deteriorating federal flood insurance program.

The debt-ceiling GIMMICK? Only the Congress is entitled to authorize debt  on behalf of the US. The national debt already under Obama has exceeded  the natural credit limit, GDP. What about the blatant hypocrisy of Obama and other Dems voting against a debt ceiling increase when the national debt was a far more manageable size? We have seen ZERO leadership from this President on cutting spending' he is only willing to make cuts in defense spending; all other cuts have been statistically insignificant or accounting gimmicks like reducing planned budget increases.  I furthermore doubt that a lame duck President  will have anything comparable to imminently expiring tax cuts to win GOP concessions. The idea that Obama will have any ability to expand spending or regulation in this Congress is a departure from reality. However, if and when the Fed has to raise rates, debt service costs will explode.

I may continue my critique in tomorrow's post

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Association, "Cherish"

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Miscellany: 2/02/13

Quote of the Day
Travel only with thy equals or thy betters; 
if there are none, travel alone.
The Dhammapada

Political Potpourri
  • McConnell To Be Primaried? The Democrats would love to ally themselves with a Tea Party candidate to replace more formidable mainstream GOP candidates. We have seen sure-GOP seat pickups or retention in Delaware, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri lost by candidates out of step with purplish states. First of all, the chances for any one ideologically pure candidate of getting anything out of a Senate where Democrats can filibuster and Obama can veto are near-zero. Second, McConnell has done a great job blocking Democrats from steamrolling the GOP--that's why the Democrats have sought to weaken minority rights in the Senate. They wouldn't do that if they thought they would lose the Senate in 2014. It's one thing to take out a pragmatic candidate in a solid red state like Utah or Kansas, but for a while Rand Paul was in trouble in Kentucky; that should be enough to scare off  ideological opponents to McConnell. I think McConnell is not afraid to play hardball against his potential opponents, including an overrated Hollywood actress. But why would Kentucky vote out one of the most influential US senators? How does that help Kentucky?
  • Scott Brown Won't Run For the Senate. Brown's gripe against the partisan nature of the Senate is pure BS. This is the same Senate he sought to return to against "Cherokee Lizzie" Warren. This  has everything to do with Brown having to defend the Kerry seat again in 2014. That would make 4 statewide runs in 4 years where in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans; for example, in my parents' birth city Fall River (below), in 2008, the registration edge was 58%-7%. But the real story here is the open governor's race next year. The GOP has enjoyed great success in the post-Dukakis era running for governor (except for the 2-term incumbent, Deval Patrick). Drudge is carrying a story suggesting Mrs. Romney or eldest son Tagg  could run. I don't think so; Mitt probably remembers his mom's unsuccessful Michigan bid in 1970. I think it does open up the door for a more unconventional candidate, say, a businessman or economist, to run an anti-insider campaign against Markey. Maybe the GOP could get a Dem to jump parties, but my best guess is Markey gets a pass.The only good note is that Barney Frank did not get the interim gig he sought; Gov. Patrick named a Kerry staffer.
  • Former NYC Mayor Koch Dead. You have to forgive confused liberals: was Ed one of the infamous libertarian Koch brothers? No. Koch, a NY fixture, did however become more right of center during the last few years. Mark Perry of Carpe Diem notes Koch maintained his rent controlled apartment while he lived in the mayor's mansion--a textbook example of what is wrong with government intervention in the market. The apartment owner had a vacant apartment he couldn't rent out. The reason why is obvious--Koch knew future savings from market rents outweighed any interim cost of paying for an unused apartment.
  • Hillary doesn't think Benghazi will an issue in 2016. This is pure state of denial. Even former Clinton adviser Dick Morris characterizes Hillary's record as Secretary of State as dismal. Of course, I hold more non-interventionist positions than Morris, Obama bears ultimate responsibility, not Clinton, but all these defensive protests of doing all she could do, etc., is nonsense. I don't see many success stories out there. We have drones bombings run amok, vacillating policies on Egypt and other places, no progress on Mideast peace, more instability in South America, lawlessness on the other side of the Mexican border, etc. It's not just that concerns about safety in Benghazi were given short shrift and not given priority under her management; it's the fact she's only paying lip service to taking responsibility and the Administration continued to scapegoat a video long after it was clear that military like attacks hit the ambassador, not random acts of violence. Clinton's character and judgment will come under scrutiny.
The Church Where My Parents Got Married

One of my nieces will soon be confirmed in our Catholic faith, and I was asked to participate in an exercise  reflecting on my own faith experience. I was born in Texas, but for most of my early life, my Dad was stationed on Cape Cod only a short weekend drive to my relatives just to the east of Providence. (I'm sure New Englanders don't think it's short, but when you drive 5 miles to grocery shop and commute up to 90  miles one way to work...) I could always tell when were nearing our maternal grandfather's house on the east side of Fall River, where the city's Franco-American population mostly lived, when I saw Notre Dame de Lourdes' twin steeples from the highway. . I love old magnificent churches: stained glass windows, holy water fonts, votive candles, whiffs of incense, organ music , the whole gestalt: it just seems to suggest the awesomeness of God. I attended many masses there and briefly attended school at the parish for parts of 2 school years while my Dad attempted to secure family housing for new assignments.

Around the time of the fire, I had been accepted to the UH MIS doctoral program (before I completed my MBA) and was transitioning from part-time MBA student to full-time. I turned on the national nightly news, and to my horror saw the fire consuming the familiar church.

I think the videos below are well done although they really only briefly deal with the Franco-American experience; I found the following intriguing, telling excerpt from the webpage of another Franco-American:
Fall River, MA, known as the Spindle City, once held the largest number of French Canadians in New England, with nearly 33,000 of them by 1900.  Although they left Canada, they brought much of it with them.  With their French parishes, bilingual parochial schools, French newspapers, and fraternal organizations they were able, for a while, to keep their culture intact.  French-Canadians did not need or want to assimilate as other immigrants did.  It took the third generation of a family to break away.  For example my Canadian-born paternal grandmother lived in New England for well over 60 years and I never heard her speak English, or make any attempt to, although she read English quite well.  My maternal grandmother admonished her young children regularly with, nous parlons français à la maison (we speak French in the house) whenever she heard them communicating in English, even though she was born in Maine and could speak English as well as anyone.
For what it's worth, many foreign born try to pass their language and customs on to their children, but for French-Canadians of that time, it went another step further.  They were taught to believe that: Ceux qui perde sa langue, perde sa foi. (They who lose their language, lose their faith.)  That is, language and religious faith were closely allied.  
Here are more excerpts:
The large number who crossed the border in the nineteenth century, particularly to the New England states, made their choice to seek a better life. These were predominantly young adults, some with families and others who were single. Traditionally, French-Canadian Americans had large families, and these numbers, coupled with dismal economic conditions, drove them south. Some estimates put the extent of the migration at 600,000, which had the effect of draining Canada of a generation.Work in textile mills and the logging industry—anything besides the backbreaking farm work in Québec—was what drew them.
French Canadian life, in Canada and in the United States, centered around the community—first that of the family (which tended to be large), and then that of the larger French-speaking community. One thing French-Canadian Americans had in common with their French Canadian ancestors was resistance to other ethnic influences. In Canada, French-speakers long opposed all things British, and in the United States, Irish or English Americans often viewed the newest immigrants as interlopers. This lack of acceptance helped to draw Franco-Americans closer together and resulted in maintaining traditions, customs, and language through the generations. Many of the traditions and beliefs are also tied to a strong sense of religion. To be a Franco-American immigrant was to be a strict Catholic, especially for the early settlers.
Maintaining French identity became more of a challenge after World War II. Immigration to the United States dropped off after the Great Depression of the 1930s. In the United States [the French] were just one of many ethnic groups to arrive in America after much of the country had been settled. After World War II, the original incentives to remain a tight community faded away. More French-Canadian Americans had the opportunity to get an education, for example, and their economic situations improved so that they no longer had to huddle in tenement houses while working long, hard hours in the textile and shoe mills. 
Of course, some Franco-Americans turned to farming. My paternal grandfather died by the time my Dad, the youngest of 6, was a teenager. He spent some of his time (e.g., summers) working on a relative's farm.

My late maternal  grandmother and godmother was much the same way as the first author's grandmothers; she passed of colon cancer complications when I was 2. I do have a card from her in my trunk signed "GrandMA and GrandPA". (Ironically my folks go by traditional mémère / pépère with my nephews and nieces. I think there was a revival in our heritage, noted by the last author, in the post-"Roots" era, just like African Americans sought to assert their cultural  heritage. My little brothers have been very interested in researching our ancestry.)

My bilingual folks started raising the family the same way:  French was my dominant language when I started kindergarten, which initially proved to be problematic. My folks overreacted and went English-only in the home: I had already memorized the Latin Mass by the age of 8. To this day, my siblings blame me for the fact they don't speak French.

But in fact my mother and my maternal uncle, who became a priest, were rather ideological assimilationists, i.e., "We are Americans, part of the melting pot. We speak English in America." My uncle early in his pastoral career as a diocesan priest became a curate (assistant pastor) in his home parish of Notre Dame de Lourdes (see excerpt below), but he kept his bilingual fluency low-key; he definitely did not want to be stereotyped as a Franco-American resource assigned to a string of dying French parishes. I remember I once asked my uncle about the separatist movement in Canada--it's ironic: I've been to Mexico, Brazil, France and a few other European countries, but not Canada. My normally unflappable uncle, who earned his licentiate (like a Master's degree in theology) at a famous Montreal seminary, snapped back, "If you think Quebec is such a great place, move there. I'm an American." Both my uncle and Mom are strict Catholics in the Franco-American tradition and politically conservative; Mom thinks the best part about cable TV is EWTN.

Fall River's Franco-American base has withered away as the once robust textile mills lost business to Southern and foreign competitors with lower transportation and other costs and newer technology (Fall River's Quequechan River (with its seven falls) allowed for tidal power and its deep water harbor were ideal resources for industrialization after the Civil War.) According to Wikipedia, only about 6% of Fall River's current 88K population is French-Canadian; a large plurality is Portuguese descent; in fact, one of my favorite relatives,  my mom and uncle's closest cousin (I also loved my feisty late grand-aunt, one of my late maternal grandfather's little sisters), used to work at a Portuguese bakery.
Fall River stands to lose an important piece of its history next spring [2012] with the merger of two Roman Catholic parishes in the Flint — Immaculate Conception and Notre Dame de Lourdes. There are two main factors for the merger, both beyond the control of the parishioners: a shortage of priests and a smaller number of worshippers. French Canadians represent a small fraction of the city’s population. One by one, the mills where they once toiled have shut down. So have the parish schools. The French language is hardly spoken anywhere in Fall River these days. The church is the foremost part of that once-prominent culture that has survived.
The first video (Part 2) has more to do with the fire and doesn't dwell on sensational aspects. The second video (part 1) provides more of a historical background. I want to close this discussion by drawing attention to some passing references by the narrator to Franco-American support for Republicans (at least prior to Catholic Al Smith's 1928 run against Hoover) and somewhat skeptical attitude towards unions. (So that's it--it's in the blood...) I don't presume to speak on behalf of all Franco-Americans: some of that probably reflected ethnic conflicts especially with  Irish Americans and limited political opportunities. Unions generally have been hostile to immigrants whom undermine their negotiating positions (an artificial shortage of workers leading to higher compensation). It could be Franco-Americans have felt shut out of employment opportunities by unions viewing them as interlopers. I think Franco-Americans are more independent-minded and less ideological. They have a strong work ethic, admire entrepreneurship, and are socially conservative. The GOP has missed opportunities to market itself to Franco-Americans.

But I think the Church confuses morally hazardous means with ends with many Catholics thinking Democratic government-dominated bureaucratic solutions address social justice ideals. There's also growing assimilation: Madonna's late mother was French but her father Italian. Of my six in-laws, 4 were non-Catholic and non-French (3 have converted to Catholicism over the course of the marriages). One of the two others is Irish, and the other shares ancestral roots with Saint Thérèse of Lisieux





Political Humor



Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Association, "Never My Love". According to BMI, the second most airplayed single of the twentieth century (I know what you're wondering--"You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling"). George Harrison  asks the same question as the Addrisi brothers with a less definitive response in my personal favorite, his classic "Something". What was it about Pattie Boyd that inspired the two of the greatest love songs ever (Clapton's "Layla", the original, not the lame unplugged version)? Or the Clapton song one of my brothers-in-law hates with a passion, "Wonderful Tonight"?

Friday, February 1, 2013

Miscellany: 2/01/13

Quote of the Day
There are always a lot of people so afraid of rocking the boat 
that they stop rowing. 
We can never get ahead that way.
Harry S. Truman

Factoid of the Day

8.5 Million Americans Left Labor Force In Obama's First Term -  Newbusters

I hate the way progressive news writers, including the Gray Lady,  put lipstick on a pig. The numbers (157K and 7.9% official unemployment) are not good--in fact, it hasn't been quite keeping up with new labor force entrants. The new January employment numbers and the recently reported small contracted  GDP fourth quarter 2012 number surprised economists to the downside.

What to make of the surging stock market. I think there are a variety of things going on  including some money shifting from junk/high yield bonds to stocks. This is not an investment blog, but I've had modest success in my retirement investments lately. I have rrecently reduced my bond exposure, I've increased some holdings in selective emerging markets and I've had some interest in the banking, pharmaceutical, energy, and housing/construction sectors; I don't chase stocks (high relative strength),  I limit positions, I cut my losses early, and I don't get greedy--I set price targets, and I'm a disciplined buyer and seller. It's getting harder to find good values from a risk/reward standpoint.  This discussion and $5 will buy you a cup of joe at Starbucks; do due diligence and invest at your own risk.

S3313: A Nuanced THUMBS DOWN!

I am unsympathetic in general with gold-plated special-interest health benefits in regulated insurance systems, e.g., cosmetic procedures, erectile dysfunction, and (in most cases) in vitro fertilization (IVF). This does not mean that I oppose a market in these services--just forcing other folks to subsidize the personal expenses. Take, for instance, an unmarried Air Force major nurse (currently earning $52,348 - $87,404 depending on years in service), in good health,  worried about her biological clock, wants IVF under what I call ordinary conditions (e.g., stateside service). She's earning good money; why should the American people be asked to pay her IVF expenses, especially since a lot of them are expected to save up for the same procedure?

I have one general exception. I'll excerpt the LA Times here:
The war takes away so many things from us," Matt Kiel said. "I don't think it should take away our ability to have a family."  Kiel, 31, of Parker, Colo., is among a growing population of veterans whose war wounds make it difficult for them to have children. The use of homemade bombs to target foot patrols has left them particularly vulnerable to injuries that can damage their reproductive systems. The Department of Defense does cover IVF for injured active duty service members. But by the time some service members have sufficiently recovered from their wounds to start planning a family, they are no longer on active duty and no longer qualify for the coverage. When Kiel first learned the extent of his disabilities from his neck wound, he looked at his wife and asked if she still loved him. The couple scraped together more than $30,000 to pay for IVF. Tracy got pregnant on the first attempt. Children Matthew and Faith are now 2 and have just learned to ride on the back of their dad's wheelchair. "She jumps up there and says, 'Go daddy, go,' " Tracy Kiel said.
When you serve your country and sustain a disabling injury in harm's way limiting your options of bearing children, I think the country has a moral obligation to help, to make the service member/veteran whole. I'm also supportive of proactive optional policies of preserving sperm for service members in the event of catastrophic injury affecting the ability to reproduce. I myself have a niece named Faith; she is a beautiful, precious gift from God. Every man and potential Dad deserves the possibility of a little Faith in his life.

Towards a Free Market in Healthcare

I have discussed alternatives to the bizarre cost-shifting where absurd markups abound, designed to maximize "uncovered costs" for government supports, the accounting gimmicks even Bernie Madoff and former Enron executives can't believe they get away with. I have discussed alternatives like an Oklahoma clinic which provides low, all-inclusive rates for various treatments and medical tourism. Today within capacity constraints of foreign-based, US quality providers, one can get all-inclusive bundled costs (travel, hotel, local transportation, treatment, etc.) at a significant cost savings to domestic providers. The availability of competitors provides an incentive for US providers to get unsustainable costs under control.

Surgery *USAColombiaCosta RicaIndiaJordanKoreaMexicoSingaporeThailand
Heart Bypass$144,000$14,630$25,000$8,500$10,000$24,000$20,000$13,500$24,000
Angioplasty$57,000$7,106$13,000$8,500$5,000$19,600$16,000$7,500$7,000
Heart Valve Replacement$170,000$10,450$30,000$1,200$12,000$36,000$30,000$13,500$22,000
Hip Replacement$50,000$8,360$12,500$8,000$8,000$16,450$13,125$11,100$14,000
Hip Resurfacing$50,000$10,500$12,000$8,000$8,000$20,900$12,800$12,100$16,000
Knee Replacement$50,000$7,106$11,500$7,000$7,000$17,800$10,650$10,800$12,000
Spinal Fusion$100,000$14,500$15,000$12,000$10,000$17,350$7,000$18,300$11,000

* Courtesy of Global Benefit Options, based on June 2009 Deloitte Data. A dated quote: "President Obama is also introducing healthcare reform, which Deloitte estimates will actually increase the cost of healthcare in the US, increasing the growing demand of Medical Tourism."



Political Humor

In his farewell speech to the Senate this week, John Kerry spoke for 51 minutes about Washington being gridlocked. The cause of the gridlock? Senators giving 51-minute speeches.  - Jay Leno

The GOP response, based on family values, was 3 minutes long:



Yesterday President Obama went to Las Vegas and spoke about his new immigration plan. Afterwards he was harshly criticized by the locals for speaking in English. - Jay Leno

[The key takeaway is that Obama promises  a path to citizenship for any immigrant able to pin  the tail on the donkey on a sample ballot. Successful applicants get party favors, like subsidized housing and public healthcare plans, Obama phones,  food stamps, welfare payments, and below-cost retirement benefits.]
Courtesy of Zazzle


Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Steely Dan, "Hey, Nineteen".This is the end of my Steely Dan series. I will next cover my favorite Association tunes.