Analytics

Sunday, February 7, 2016

The Eighth 2016 GOP Presidential Debate

As I tweeted last night, I thought the debate missed Rand Paul's presence. The governors (Bush, Kasich, and Christie) generally had good nights, but chances are high that barring an election surprise, one or 2 of them (I suspect Christie in particular) will leave the race after the NH primary, results Tuesday night. The problem is that I didn't really see anybody go after Trump, who has been the frontrunner in the NH polls for months. (There was one dust-up on eminent domain I recall between Trump and Bush, where Trump got booed 4 times.) I think the real battle is for the silver and the bronze, and Cruz and Rubio, as one would expect hoping to catch momentum from their strong showings in Iowa last week, came under fire.

Cruz, an able, articulate former collegiate champion debater, seemed to have an off night from other performances; he should have anticipated a discussion of the Carson break kerfuffle during the Iowa caucuses. (For those readers unaware, CNN had broken a story that Carson, instead of heading to NH after IA, which is traditionally what candidates have done, would be taking some days off the trail. Some CNN reporters and a Cruz staffer speculated that it signaled a possible withdrawal, and the Cruz campaign apparently approached Carson supporters to urge them to switch. (I'm not going to go into details here, but let me summarize some key points from this updated page:  (1) the Carson campaign on caucus night blamed "false media (CNN) reports" that Carson was suspending his campaign--NOT the Cruz campaign; (2) multiple campaigns were also going after Carson supporters, including the Rubio and Paul campaigns; (3) there is no evidence that any Carson voters were flipped--in fact, as I pointed out in an earlier tweet, Carson's vote totals exceeded his RCP poll average.) The point is that Cruz should have had a scripted, brief response, but to me, the response went into undue detail.

Cruz also went into a long, legalistic discussion on whether waterboarding is torture (and eventually concluded that it wasn't) which I didn't find convincing. His discussion of his late half-sister's death as an addict was compelling. He did give a good outline of his healthcare and immigration policies, and his closing statement, citing his principled stand against Big Ethanol, was effective.

Rubio notably got caught by Christie repeating the same line about Obama about knowing exactly knowing what he's doing trying to transform America. As I've discussed elsewhere, I think he's really trying to defend that as a first-term senator, he's qualified to lead--that he isn't an incompetent Republican Obama. He sounded principled on social conservatism and against class warfare politics. His closing statement, citing his children's future was effective.

Carson did not have a good night starting with the discussion of the above-mentioned caucus kerfuffle. I think his scapegoating Cruz was disingenuous; the problem was the incompetence of his campaign staff; Cruz did not invent the CNN report. Even if Carson supporters changed their minds, they have every right to do so, whether or not their reasons were valid. I thought Cruz showed a great deal of decency in apologizing for his campaign's handling of the situation. Carson had accepted the apology earlier, but now complained that Cruz' campaign didn't provide realtime updates on CNN's miscues. Sorry, Carson: man up! That's your campaign's responsibility.

Carson gave a fairly decent explanation on his position for healthcare. I did not like his concept of proactive intervention in the Middle East. I was not impressed with how he handled the Zika virus question, which was of the "world is complex"variety; Christie's handling of the nurse who did not have Ebola was unconscionable, and Carson didn't really address it.

Bush had a good night, probably the most articulate debater next to Cruz. He bloodied Trump on eminent domain. He stood against waterboarding vs. Cruz and Trump. He brought the case against Obama's seat of the pants foreign policy. He made a strong case for tax and regulatory reform. He spoke of flexibility on abortion. He talked of giving veterans private sector choices on healthcare and of overdue civil servant reform. He made a good closing statement, based on the observation of Reagan's birthday.

Kasich and Christie gave compelling accounts of their accomplishments as governor, although I don't think Christie really addressed the rating downgrades question. Kasich continued to articulate his version of "win-win" compassionate conservatism, insisting that he would not deport 11 million people. On the police issue, he articulated ties between government and communities.

Christie basically slapped Rubio for his alleged lack of accomplishments and his repeated soundbites on Obama, He made a compelling case of millionaire migration after class warfare taxes. I was not crazy about his idea of doing cross-border drug operations without the knowledge and consent of Mexico. He also allowed exceptions of abortion for self-defense grounds (e.g., life/health of mother, rape/incest).

Trump didn't add much to the debate; he seems to want to subcontract problem countries, e.g., North Korea to China, Syria to Russia. He vaguely sketches out some policy points on healthcare to increase market competition: more questions than answers. He wants to bomb tankers in Iraq and/or seize oil operations, resume waterboarding and a lot worse. He gave a bizarre definition of conservatism and praised the wonders of eminent domain.

My ranking of overall performance (from highest to lowest):

  • Jeb Bush
  • Ted Cruz
  • John Kasich
  • Chris Christie
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ben Carson
  • Donald Trump