Analytics

Monday, February 8, 2016

Miscellany: 2/08/16

Quote of the Day
One of the hardest things in this world is to admit you are wrong. 
And nothing is more helpful in resolving a situation than its frank admission.
Benjamin Disraeli

My Tweets
Image of the Day

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Funny poke at Jeb Bush via Twitter

Hillary and EmailGate Continued



Big Green Cronyism Goes Beyond Ethanol Subsidies



Choose Life



Political Potpourri  NH Primary Eve

Five new NH polls with Trump leading all from 11 to 21. Bush places second in one, Kasich in another (plus a share with Rubio), Rubio in one (plus two shares), and Cruz shares one. A snowstorm fell in NH today, but Accuweather expects nothing but light flurries tomorrow which shouldn't affect polling tomorrow. The polls have tightened, and Liz Mair, who is a principal of an anti-Trump group I follow, reports Trump is pushing hard for his followers to make it to the polls despite the weather, not what you would expect if your internal polling indicated a landslide. I'm not sure; I think Trump was shaken in losing Iowa and knows a NH loss could harm his chances in SC and FL.

It does look in Election Betting Odds since the debate that Rubio has taken a hit and now ranks behind Trump, Kasich and Bush in NH and has dropped to under 40% on nomination odds, although 10 points ahead of Trump.

In other polls, Cruz won by 4 points over Trump and Rubio in an Arkansas poll, while Trump laps Rubio in Michigan. Rasmussen's national poll shows Trump up by 11 over Rubio and 12 over Cruz.

On the other side, Sanders beats Clinton in all 5 polls ranging from 12 to 26 points.

Will 2016 be a shock result like in 1980 where Reagan won convincing after polling way behind? Will Trump's supporters show up at the polls?  I'm not sure. I had mentioned over the weekend I needed to see some polls narrow to single digits. I could be wrong, but I expect both Trump and Sanders to win easily. The big question is whether Rubio's repeated robotic messaging during Saturday's debate may have halted his Iowa momentum. I do expect at least one governor to drop out after tomorrow, and I think that's Christie, although there are rumors s couple of Romney backers put some money behind Christie.

I may or may not post separately on NH results tomorrow.

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Michael Ramirez via Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

Jim Croce, "I Got a Name". Hands down, my favorite Croce tune. I could listen to it replay for hours.